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Champions League · resolved market

Will Arsenal FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$80,545
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$80,645

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,545 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Champions League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd6a3…9489backed No68c7,402$5,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,395.934342.3%145 W · 198 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf43…ae9abacked No73c5,687$4,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,535.492770.4%19 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick73cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0353…c2ffbacked Yes34c4,000$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3604429.5%13 W · 31 L-6.7wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-32.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No71c3,411$2,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$981.2158248.8%284 W · 298 L+2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed No73c3,000$2,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$809.9716349.1%80 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd7c…d563backed No73c2,800$2,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a89…b868backed Yes27c2,799$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No78c2,746$2,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.5546048.5%223 W · 237 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x495f…06b0backed Yes24c2,564$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6253836.8%14 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c36…c1efbacked Yes20c2,494$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.69520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-51.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0432…1660backed Yes35c2,277$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802.79333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-53%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes16c2,243$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.4138935.2%137 W · 252 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd71a…9498backed No73c2,150$1,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.5757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-21.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c9e…9727backed Yes27c1,852$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-74.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No73c1,682$1,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.712,10143.6%917 W · 1,184 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9602…4d02backed No64c1,600$1,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.9920948.8%102 W · 107 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes26c1,404$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36519028.9%55 W · 135 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc444…20dabacked Yes37c1,399$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.721546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Yes27c1,324$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.417853.9%96 W · 82 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0778…1276backed No72c1,121$807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.95683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick55cpaid+61.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda8f…1d91backed Yes27c1,111$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick30cpaid-75.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc17f…50aabacked No73c1,033$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.787100%7 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+70.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x35fb…4ce5backed Yes28c1,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2804637%17 W · 29 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+43.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x340d…1335backed Yes28c971.43$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x388b…25ddbacked Yes28c892.86$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid+9.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6771…b783backed No73c878$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.064656.5%26 W · 20 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f8b…f6ccbacked Yes18c799.29$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.87540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick19cpaid+154.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6df9…e49ebacked Yes27c766.8$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.04728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-56.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked No65c699.88$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.9516546.1%76 W · 89 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed No73c683.23$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.4739746.9%186 W · 211 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed No79c636.95$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.938343.1%165 W · 218 L-0.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd538…317cbacked Yes39c600$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.325121.6%11 W · 40 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-26.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc15d…6a7cbacked Yes26c585.5$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.963636.1%13 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ef5…325ebacked Yes27c555.56$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a6…fa77backed Yes37c540.54$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked No73c535$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.456558.5%38 W · 27 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+24.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6de…95e8backed Yes19c526.32$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-46.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xed8b…e92cbacked Yes27c518.52$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140214.8%1 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick17cpaid-91%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed No69c503.62$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.7936260.2%218 W · 144 L+20.3wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed No73c500.99$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.2638748.3%187 W · 200 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Yes28c500$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1406428.1%18 W · 46 L-8.7wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-38%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed Yes27c499.98$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13538048.7%185 W · 195 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed No71c410$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.185433.3%18 W · 36 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-20.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e12…1c24backed Yes28c400$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick30cpaid-82.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfba5…b29dbacked Yes27c399.78$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a9a…dcbebacked Yes27c373.3$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.792420.8%5 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ee7…0ba8backed Yes27c370.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004238.1%16 W · 26 L-4.5wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-11.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x64ae…ead9backed Yes27c370.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011135.1%39 W · 72 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa266…67f7backed Yes28c357.21$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005339.6%21 W · 32 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd507…9b56backed Yes28c357.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001225%3 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+70.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes28c357.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100100%0 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5ad5…37b9backed Yes20c355$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715829.3%17 W · 41 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick19cpaid+158%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbfd0…07a9backed Yes49c306.12$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3735…37dabacked Yes18c277.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x74bf…2e8cbacked Yes41c243.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x230a…2704backed Yes41c242.45$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick37cpaid-71.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdff8…3b41backed Yes21c238.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-31.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Yes5c222.8$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.146141%25 W · 36 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-25%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c67…63fcbacked No73c202.53$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.686159%36 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb36…9545backed Yes27c200$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545742.1%24 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3688…7567backed Yes15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Yes27c200$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5413644.1%60 W · 76 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x117c…db06backed Yes27c185.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-43.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43d6…fba0backed Yes27c183.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x300c…d650backed Yes22c181.82$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-53.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x356d…0eccbacked Yes28c176.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8147…ab6cbacked Yes20c174.19$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-39%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc63c…afbcbacked Yes19c163.16$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-51%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76da…30a2backed No64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.256144.3%27 W · 34 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-21.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8d1…ad22backed Yes33c150.95$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503933.3%13 W · 26 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-25.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xefcb…d5f0backed No75c146.67$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.67825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-52.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x92c7…0e11backed Yes28c142.86$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+19.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9776…fc56backed Yes28c142.86$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403237.5%12 W · 20 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fb2…bc8cbacked Yes28c142.86$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401631.3%5 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-37.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fc0…d42fbacked Yes29c137.93$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403844.7%17 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked No73c136.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9912546.4%58 W · 67 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07e7…a343backed No73c131$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.371915.8%3 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-74.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e6f…eb72backed No74c115.42$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.426076.7%46 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick74cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3c7…7070backed Yes44c113.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501560%9 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f9…edbfbacked Yes18c111.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64f0…7b1fbacked Yes27c110.61$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3070%0 W · 7 L-3.1wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed No66c109.83$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.4237544%165 W · 210 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed Yes22c108.51$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes31c107.58$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335253.8%28 W · 24 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2280…3df3backed Yes28c107.14$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-47.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6fa…7631backed Yes19c105.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-41.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b1b…7d5ebacked Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa09a…5cb8backed Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-37.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1cf…9656backed Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288626.7%23 W · 63 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xddca…239abacked Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182634.6%9 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-26.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277924.1%19 W · 60 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+22.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa16f…540abacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe83…3b00backed Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7760…2da5backed Yes27c92.59$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c1…c739backed Yes27c92.59$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5ea…0b14backed Yes27c92.59$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x820c…4841backed Yes27c90$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-41.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b4e…2c1fbacked Yes28c89.29$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe76f…3f7abacked Yes45c88.89$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed No63c88$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.28850%44 W · 44 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.