NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Raptors: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc58523459009cc71eebd994508abce2154d8327912368fdedd4318b1f37d613b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,649
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Over | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 52c | 2,273$1,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,090.96 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 2,018$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.77 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 56c | 1,613$903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.72 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Under | 48c | 1,418$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.4 | 278 | 40.6%113 W · 165 L | -22.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 44c | 1,062$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.28 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 44c | 1,062$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.27 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Under | 51c | 941.18$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Under | 46c | 916.6$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.64 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 49c | 784.28$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.27 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e15…53fabacked Under | 48c | 739.58$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa499…7873backed Over | 54c | 636$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.36 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 51c | 499.99$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe048…f883backed Over | 56c | 496.43$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb888…ebd4backed Under | 45c | 493.33$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 51c | 443.04$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.95 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa763…709ebacked Over | 49c | 408$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.08 | 198 | 45.5%90 W · 108 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Over | 49c | 250$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Under | 69c | 220.99$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.6 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066a…642cbacked Under | 45c | 210$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa886…cf55backed Over | 56c | 210$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 51cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8218…86a7backed Over | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e88…2198backed Under | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a83…09f0backed Over | 54c | 188$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.48 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 44c | 172$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.68 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x117c…db06backed Over | 55c | 145.45$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 180 | 47.2%85 W · 95 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…81d6backed Over | 49c | 132.65$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.65 | 157 | 59.9%94 W · 63 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e88…7c99backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…9166backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 52c | 75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Under | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 290 | 46.9%136 W · 154 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…73bcbacked Under | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 45c | 66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9f…d42cbacked Over | 56c | 65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Over | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 51c | 45.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef44…86a5backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Under | 45c | 37.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 302 | 44%133 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f1…1744backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 46c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 339 | 49.9%169 W · 170 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa9…bad5backed Over | 51c | 25.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 43c | 24.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 48c | 24.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9f…4b15backed Over | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…aec0backed Over | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8043…7fe3backed Over | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf597…f4aebacked Over | 53c | 24.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadd4…3ae9backed Over | 54c | 24.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…f59fbacked Over | 54c | 24.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94db…26bbbacked Over | 54c | 24.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1961…d240backed Over | 54c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a74…c3e4backed Over | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8296…e9cbbacked Over | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba1…b0b6backed Under | 49c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c2…c9ddbacked Over | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Raptors: O/U 238.5this page
- 1H Spread: Raptors (-8.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-12.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-13.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-14.5)Raptors won
- Wizards vs. RaptorsRaptors won
- Wizards vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Wizards vs. Raptors: O/U 237.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Raptors: O/U 239.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Raptors: O/U 240.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.