NBA · resolved market
Spread: Raptors (-14.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d2abbcaeffe9d55d8bae974266a2eca3ae94d24de41ad0aae0d92deff0d8da4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raptorsof Raptors, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,163
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,015
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,163 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Raptors | 47c | 36,289$17,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,138.02 | 593 | 47%279 W · 314 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Wizards | 53c | 21,047$11,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,154.99 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | +13.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Wizards | 53c | 14,435$7,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,590.49 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Wizards | 51c | 9,251$4,718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,718.01 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Wizards | 50c | 4,534$2,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,282.1 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Raptors | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…8cc5backed Raptors | 49c | 2,002$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,021 | 432 | 47.5%205 W · 227 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8198…e96ebacked Raptors | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7620…d9f0backed Raptors | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Raptors | 50c | 1,331$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.84 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wizards | 51c | 1,089$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.86 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…8cd4backed Raptors | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 90 | 42.2%38 W · 52 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Raptors | 55c | 943$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.71 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Wizards | 45c | 934$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.3 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f16…0246backed Raptors | 49c | 718$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.18 | 386 | 49.5%191 W · 195 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Raptors | 49c | 402.89$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.51 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…b1b1backed Raptors | 48c | 207.1$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.74 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Raptors | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655d…b758backed Raptors | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 244 | 46.7%114 W · 130 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…9cf9backed Wizards | 52c | 192.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.92 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Raptors | 46c | 163.79$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.92 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe203…1b53backed Wizards | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 274 | 35.4%97 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Raptors | 49c | 104$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Raptors | 49c | 102$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.02 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Wizards | 53c | 100.6$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.24 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e3…cf81backed Wizards | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 189 | 55%104 W · 85 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87d5…9790backed Wizards | 54c | 93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 133 | 58.6%78 W · 55 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Wizards | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Raptors | 49c | 61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Wizards | 53c | 52.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 685 | 42.6%292 W · 393 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Raptors | 50c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 158 | 41.1%65 W · 93 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…c4f2backed Raptors | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…2ca4backed Raptors | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Wizards | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b3…0d89backed Raptors | 48c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46a0…f721backed Raptors | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96d2…dc9bbacked Raptors | 48c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Wizards | 52c | 20.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbee6…67d2backed Raptors | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Raptors (-14.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Raptors (-8.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-12.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-13.5)Raptors won
- Wizards vs. RaptorsRaptors won
- Wizards vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Wizards vs. Raptors: O/U 237.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Raptors: O/U 238.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Raptors: O/U 239.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Raptors: O/U 240.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.