NBA · resolved market
Spread: Raptors (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1d7c93b012921838d6d7b34bf99870104f0e21c45965e6a40ff99bc420c39a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raptorsof Raptors, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,901
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,901 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f16…0246backed Raptors | 57c | 2,177$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.27 | 386 | 49.5%191 W · 195 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Wizards | 45c | 1,802$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.05 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wizards | 42c | 1,221$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.59 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8198…e96ebacked Raptors | 54c | 420.31$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.34 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Wizards | 44c | 324.26$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.19 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Wizards | 42c | 311.29$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.74 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Wizards | 26c | 270$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 228 | 36.4%83 W · 145 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Raptors | 57c | 263.91$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.48 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x744b…848ebacked Raptors | 59c | 237.29$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.29 | 145 | 52.4%76 W · 69 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Raptors | 56c | 231$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.95 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae7…cf61backed Wizards | 46c | 215.57$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.16 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Raptors | 58c | 206.88$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.89 | 160 | 61.3%98 W · 62 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…ff8bbacked Raptors | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Raptors | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 271 | 52%141 W · 130 L | -17.9wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Wizards | 43c | 166$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.38 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Wizards | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e88…7c99backed Raptors | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…8117backed Raptors | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b2…3886backed Raptors | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Wizards | 45c | 84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Wizards | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…f150backed Raptors | 59c | 76.51$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f1…025dbacked Raptors | 55c | 72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Wizards | 45c | 70.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf256…a93fbacked Raptors | 55c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Wizards | 42c | 68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Raptors | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 710 | 44.6%317 W · 393 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Raptors | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x084c…a811backed Raptors | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf54a…e25dbacked Raptors | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bc…a233backed Wizards | 45c | 36.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…2cf3backed Raptors | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 849 | 57.6%489 W · 360 L | -52.1wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Raptors | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 187 | 42.8%80 W · 107 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked Raptors | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Raptors | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 146 | 54.8%80 W · 66 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Raptors (-12.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Raptors (-8.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-13.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-14.5)Raptors won
- Wizards vs. RaptorsRaptors won
- Wizards vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Wizards vs. Raptors: O/U 237.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Raptors: O/U 238.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Raptors: O/U 239.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Raptors: O/U 240.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.