NBA · resolved market
Spread: Raptors (-13.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffd1a0d476c0628694cfbedf56c8aeb46c796ef339c04136f322d09be0dbdff9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raptorsof Raptors, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,705
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,705 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wizards | 46c | 18,937$8,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,736.35 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc701…f932backed Raptors | 55c | 15,000$8,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,750 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Wizards | 45c | 10,477$4,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,718.78 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Wizards | 48c | 7,081$3,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,431.54 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea5…1f23backed Raptors | 53c | 6,019$3,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,828.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Raptors | 52c | 4,500$2,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,160 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe0…6b6cbacked Raptors | 53c | 3,755$1,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,764.72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Raptors | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 180 | 47.8%86 W · 94 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00e1…4976backed Wizards | 49c | 2,506$1,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,227.85 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x605a…4576backed Raptors | 51c | 2,506$1,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,227.85 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Raptors | 50c | 1,891$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945.21 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Wizards | 46c | 1,801$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828.46 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Raptors | 54c | 1,651$891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.29 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08dd…55b0backed Raptors | 53c | 1,585$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.74 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31b0…8c4cbacked Raptors | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Wizards | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Raptors | 52c | 999.99$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 1,048 | 41.1%431 W · 617 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Raptors | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.4 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Wizards | 46c | 920$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.2 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f16…0246backed Raptors | 53c | 849$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.03 | 386 | 49.5%191 W · 195 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4741backed Raptors | 55c | 690.91$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.91 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Wizards | 46c | 602$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.92 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd509…b06abacked Wizards | 46c | 600$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e13…732fbacked Raptors | 52c | 597$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.37 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Raptors | 55c | 590$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.5 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Raptors | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.92 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Wizards | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 491 | 42.6%209 W · 282 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Wizards | 45c | 499.99$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked Wizards | 48c | 478$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.44 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Wizards | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Wizards | 46c | 391$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.86 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e84…768ebacked Raptors | 53c | 354.72$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.72 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Wizards | 46c | 342.35$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.6 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…66abbacked Raptors | 53c | 254.72$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.72 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…9188backed Wizards | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Raptors | 55c | 193.67$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.35 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf5…443bbacked Raptors | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Wizards | 46c | 172$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.12 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Raptors | 52c | 153.85$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.85 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Wizards | 46c | 131.28$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.39 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Raptors | 52c | 120$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Wizards | 48c | 108.29$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.42 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffb…df76backed Raptors | 50c | 106$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 470 | 48.5%228 W · 242 L | -18.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Wizards | 46c | 102$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 1,028 | 48.5%499 W · 529 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Wizards | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1351…bebcbacked Raptors | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Wizards | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Raptors | 53c | 99.75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.88 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…f0e8backed Raptors | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Raptors | 52c | 68.65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Raptors | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 187 | 42.8%80 W · 107 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Raptors | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e4…24c2backed Raptors | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 285 | 47.7%136 W · 149 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Raptors | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 249 | 55%137 W · 112 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…367fbacked Wizards | 47c | 53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Wizards | 46c | 51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed Wizards | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70df…bca8backed Raptors | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Raptors | 53c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Wizards | 46c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 331 | 47.4%157 W · 174 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f1…c325backed Wizards | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fd…8efdbacked Wizards | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94a2…0c1abacked Raptors | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Wizards | 46c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 623 | 49.6%309 W · 314 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Wizards | 46c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Wizards | 46c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 717 | 47.6%341 W · 376 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21b4…e064backed Raptors | 53c | 33.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Raptors | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Wizards | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Wizards | 46c | 24.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 479 | 48%230 W · 249 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Wizards | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 734 | 45.5%334 W · 400 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Raptors | 54c | 22.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Raptors | 54c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Wizards | 48c | 20.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Raptors | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Raptors (-13.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Raptors (-8.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-12.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-14.5)Raptors won
- Wizards vs. RaptorsRaptors won
- Wizards vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Wizards vs. Raptors: O/U 237.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Raptors: O/U 238.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Raptors: O/U 239.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Raptors: O/U 240.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.