Earnings · resolved market
Will Marriott International (MAR) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e53714194a4cf3e831aa82e8ff9c6635d194fa4853a4c0c0aa45dd372df334b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,934
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,934 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 17c | 1,412$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.94 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9758…caafbacked No | 28c | 632.5$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 17c | 429.36$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.75 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 18c | 327.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 13c | 309.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…9a10backed No | 9c | 250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ac…2d85backed Yes | 78c | 249.03$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.79 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 26c | 217.57$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 22c | 199.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 19c | 199.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed No | 16c | 170.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x646c…3210backed No | 36c | 159.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -71%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 25c | 153.81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9256…2e8bbacked Yes | 69c | 140$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 81 | 61.7%50 W · 31 L | +8.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f19…3aedbacked Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 17c | 89.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed Yes | 80c | 84.75$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…4f17backed No | 31c | 81.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3284…2786backed Yes | 73c | 78$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked No | 21c | 76.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 26c | 74.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed No | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…d62ebacked Yes | 70c | 66.67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a0…18b6backed No | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8598…199fbacked Yes | 71c | 56.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5343…0b0fbacked Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 117 | 71.8%84 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf597…f4aebacked No | 26c | 49.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…4413backed No | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6346…7c71backed Yes | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f7…8390backed Yes | 80c | 32.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8296…e9cbbacked No | 40c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x211f…8e0fbacked Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d27…4f3cbacked Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f3…a2e5backed Yes | 75c | 26.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3029…0ab1backed Yes | 75c | 26.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd9…049ebacked Yes | 79c | 25.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…c706backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 74cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa249…12fabacked Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 73cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf57…053bbacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…d8cdbacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd25b…dd82backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10bb…d49dbacked Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 102 | 72.5%74 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 73c | 19.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff50…de6fbacked Yes | 75c | 17.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.