TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xff50…de6f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
95
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Premier League, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Premier League at 55 out of 100; worst NFL at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 30, 2026, EST5556.4%31 W · 24 L-0.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 55 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Heat vs. Bullsbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$918Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+50.1%+$460.27
Nuggets vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$65.98
Hawks vs. Spursbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Kings vs. Grizzliesbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$23
Pacers vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$120
Celtics vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$76.95
76ers vs. Hornetsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2024, EST+53.8%+$8.62
Pelicans vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2024, EST+25%+$8
Lakers vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2024, EST-100%-$11
Kings vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2024, EST-100%-$11
Pistons vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2024, EST+31.6%+$3.47
Raptors vs. Pelicansbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2024, EST-100%-$11
Knicks vs. Mavericksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2024, EST-100%-$11
Rockets vs. 76ersbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2024, EST+51.5%+$5.67
Bulls vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2024, EST+26.6%+$2.92
Trail Blazers vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2024, EST+25%+$2.75
Heat vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2024, EST-100%-$11
Lakers vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2024, EST+81.8%+$9
Rockets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2024, EST-100%-$11.4
Bucks vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2024, EST-100%-$10.99
Bulls vs. Wizardsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2024, EST-100%-$13.2
Nuggets vs. Lakersbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2024, EST+143.8%+$113.76
Warriors vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2024, EST+163.2%+$230.99
Hornets vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2024, EST+33.3%+$50
Grizzlies vs. Bullsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2024, EST-100%-$35
Showing 25 of 55 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Nov 25, 2024, EST2236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NFL — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Eagles vs. Ramsbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2024, EST+66.7%+$40
Broncos vs. Raidersbacked Raiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2024, EST-100%-$12
49ers vs. Packersbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2024, EST-100%-$58.9
Cardinals vs. Seahawksbacked Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2024, EST-100%-$80
Vikings vs. Bearsbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2024, EST-100%-$19
Cowboys vs. Commandersbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2024, EST+488.2%+$83
Chiefs vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2024, EST-100%-$15
Patriots vs. Dolphinsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2024, EST-100%-$57.5
Titans vs. Texansbacked Titans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2024, EST+354.5%+$78
Buccaneers vs. Giantsbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2024, EST-100%-$35.25
Lions vs. Coltsbacked Colts · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2024, EST-100%-$45.5
Dolphins vs. Ramsbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2024, EST-100%-$20.94
Lions vs. Texansbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2024, EST-100%-$14.4
Jets vs. Cardinalsbacked Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST+122.2%+$122.65
Titans vs. Chargersbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST+28.7%+$17.44
Steelers vs. Commandersbacked Commanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$122.69
Bills vs. Coltsbacked Colts · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$13.6
Patriots vs. Bearsbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$144.5
Falcons vs. Saintsbacked Saints · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST+185.7%+$26
Broncos vs. Chiefsbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST+26.6%+$42
Giants vs. Panthersbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$35.5
Bengals vs. Ravensbacked Ravens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2024, EST+38.9%+$14
All 22 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2025, EST771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick52cpaid+63.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-55.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 2, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+73.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Capitals vs. Bruinsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$48
Rangers vs. Predatorsbacked Predators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+100%+$11
All 2 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST+40.8%+$58
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 18, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$32.19
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Nov 4, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Marriott International (MAR) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+33.3%+$4.33
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$102
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Sep 8, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cubs vs. Bravesbacked Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$55
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dvalishvili vs. Nurmagomedovbacked Nurmagomedov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$245Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$244.99
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.