TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Bills vs. Colts

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Billsof Bills, Colts
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$97,299
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$106,322

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,299 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 215 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xae76…dce5backed Colts34c9,831$3,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,307.1127339.2%107 W · 166 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6a2…6af8backed Bills67c5,000$3,339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,66112570.4%88 W · 37 L+12.8wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+15.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x94dc…c779backed Colts19c5,000$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9507853.8%42 W · 36 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed Colts28c4,548$1,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,274.7922638.9%88 W · 138 L-1.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6898…38dfbacked Bills67c4,470$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,469.981040%4 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-43.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0269…cb2dbacked Colts33c4,055$1,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,334.3744246.8%207 W · 235 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x03e9…af79backed Bills67c4,000$2,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3201127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.25per pick52cpaid-39.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xd42f…047dbacked Colts32c4,000$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,299.9432438%123 W · 201 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe91…70ffbacked Colts33c3,808$1,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,260.7313751.8%71 W · 66 L+6.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x62b1…9e01backed Colts5c3,564$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.76825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+102.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x986f…cac8backed Colts34c2,463$837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$837.181216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7b2…ece3backed Colts33c2,000$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.165848.3%28 W · 30 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xccf2…41b7backed Colts32c1,962$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.953141.9%13 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed Colts21c1,903$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.2421713.8%30 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-50.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2b82…7dabbacked Bills68c1,642$1,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.34475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+16.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf334…0a0fbacked Bills66c1,470$971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5368…9dd4backed Bills66c1,411$931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.611250%6 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dcc…7153backed Bills71c1,408$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.521566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+106.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5073…9370backed Colts17c1,326$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.83933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+114%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x188c…3d31backed Colts34c1,026$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b0b…f9d6backed Bills66c999.99$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3408234.1%28 W · 54 L-10.3wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-29.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xac97…a99ebacked Colts34c999.91$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.9739242.6%167 W · 225 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c60…70f1backed Colts11c969.07$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.1740%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64db…fb04backed Colts6c714.28$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc29f…2f53backed Bills68c655.63$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.8850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-28.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2b41…e0d3backed Bills68c625$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20019864.6%128 W · 70 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…efb8backed Bills67c600$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1986058.3%35 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+3.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4451…c6afbacked Colts33c500$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1654032.5%13 W · 27 L-4.9wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-29.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x93d0…0c2ebacked Colts21c500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10513255.3%73 W · 59 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x51f7…ae1fbacked Colts15c487.11$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.73262.5%20 W · 12 L+4.1wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+27.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc1bb…99c4backed Colts34c444.83$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf612…5700backed Colts32c443.96$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.0420736.2%75 W · 132 L-13.3wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-23%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcefa…bef8backed Bills67c438.38$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.6716259.9%97 W · 65 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Bills65c399.99$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13838459.9%230 W · 154 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Colts31c391.36$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.3224738.1%94 W · 153 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Colts4c388$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.414311.6%7 W · 424 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-82.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa5c…be69backed Colts46c373.67$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1736333.3%21 W · 42 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-16.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd35d…7089backed Bills68c367.65$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.6514452.8%76 W · 68 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe2b…ed08backed Colts34c350$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1191526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Colts33c304.79$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.488035%28 W · 52 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd94…0b01backed Bills65c300.82$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.9816139.1%63 W · 98 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4b9…cf5ebacked Colts33c300$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005925.4%15 W · 44 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-37.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x603a…fc8bbacked Colts35c300$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10490%0 W · 9 L-3.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xa945…8201backed Bills68c300$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick66cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e42…f833backed Colts34c300$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-60.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf175…5adabacked Bills66c299.67$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.893100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x40d5…acd1backed Bills67c296.35$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.3523351.9%121 W · 112 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc252…5bb4backed Colts22c277.27$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.580%0 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8884…b428backed Colts37c251$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$932152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa10d…acc6backed Colts22c250$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-48.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb5c…ba77backed Colts21c238.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-50.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0078…bca0backed Bills67c208.96$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.9622745.4%103 W · 124 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb79…c2c6backed Colts33c202.22$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.739645.8%44 W · 52 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd85…37c1backed Bills55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+61.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5380…28debacked Bills67c200$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667054.3%38 W · 32 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0e91…097ebacked Colts22c200$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-57.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed Bills67c200$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6624351.4%125 W · 118 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcc0…6872backed Colts19c200$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376446.9%30 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8a4…75c1backed Bills64c180.81$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.0918658.1%108 W · 78 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x34d1…c822backed Colts35c171.63$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.07250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b42…b327backed Bills66c156.06$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfc0…0f84backed Bills66c151.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.521020%2 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-61.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc745…9499backed Bills67c150$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.54862.5%30 W · 18 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x89dc…e209backed Bills66c149.99$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513574.3%26 W · 9 L+5.7wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+26.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5ae5…3113backed Bills67c149.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.257171.8%51 W · 20 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x37c1…e0c9backed Bills67c149.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.258250%41 W · 41 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb775…2205backed Bills67c149.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.254658.7%27 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd51…0aebbacked Bills67c149.07$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.075560%33 W · 22 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e1b…7ccabacked Bills68c147.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.0613655.9%76 W · 60 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cee…1832backed Bills68c147.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.061346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d8c…abf0backed Colts26c142.53$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.54616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-65.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0bd6…f461backed Colts33c135$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.55520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a0e…433dbacked Bills67c132$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.565766.7%38 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d45…020fbacked Colts11c119.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.85540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf5b…b250backed Bills67c119.4$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.47774%57 W · 20 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick66cpaid+12.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb8ff…c139backed Colts35c114.3$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-44.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf80…7ef1backed Bills73c113.73$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.71580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick72cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6884…a363backed Colts16c112.14$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-67.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xedd5…63a1backed Bills67c111.94$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9415858.9%93 W · 65 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc9ad…f186backed Bills67c111.94$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.947177.5%55 W · 16 L+7.7wins+0.11per pick67cpaid+14.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x24ac…6df6backed Bills68c110.29$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2919261.5%118 W · 74 L+13.6wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f3d…fea8backed Bills68c110.29$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.291266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+84.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xba19…0f73backed Colts32c108.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.031926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-48.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6678…d4b6backed Bills67c104.48$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.4818144.8%81 W · 100 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87c4…490ebacked Bills67c104.48$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.4811673.3%85 W · 31 L+8.2wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc986…28d8backed Bills66c103.03$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.035100%5 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+90.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xef04…88c3backed Colts34c101$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.342055%11 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9d7…25e9backed Colts13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2510345.6%47 W · 56 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Bills67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338960.7%54 W · 35 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d44…73b5backed Bills67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4614…1c98backed Bills67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+37.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fb4…2794backed Bills65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3514139%55 W · 86 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8163…e061backed Bills57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433154.8%17 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+5.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe59b…488ebacked Colts33c99.92$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9714022.9%32 W · 108 L-12.8wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-28.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xda75…b8fdbacked Bills70c99.79$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.79560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee1…5962backed Colts35c97.14$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+26.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e5e…18ccbacked Colts21c94.66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.06862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+22.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8996…fbcebacked Colts34c94.06$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.989732%31 W · 66 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x684e…2f63backed Bills67c91.04$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.04933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-28.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc818…777dbacked Bills67c89.55$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.55450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.