TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Kings vs. Grizzlies

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Grizzliesof Kings, Grizzlies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$997,735
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,068,923

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $997,735 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 763 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3987…259ebacked Grizzlies58c102,373$59,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,996.68022.5%18 W · 62 L-10.0wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-49.4%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Kings43c54,377$23,628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,627.872,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Kings42c42,345$17,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,784.85433.3%18 W · 36 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-35.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Kings42c32,000$13,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,439.977946.8%37 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0140…9028backed Grizzlies58c30,000$17,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,6004544.4%20 W · 25 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xefc9…b337backed Grizzlies58c25,979$15,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,911.24037.5%15 W · 25 L-4.5wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-21.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf963…0637backed Grizzlies57c24,000$13,718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,281.984742.6%20 W · 27 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Grizzlies57c22,073$12,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,491.5587144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Kings42c22,000$9,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,2408840.9%36 W · 52 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Kings3c21,378$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.381,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Grizzlies58c19,999$11,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,399.791,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Kings43c18,643$8,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,016.4380146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Kings42c17,928$7,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,529.8766853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Grizzlies58c17,241$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,241.3834062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ce2…e868backed Grizzlies58c15,690$9,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,606.885850%29 W · 29 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Kings0c15,269$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.6564517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Kings13c15,074$1,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,935.134,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc568…1a8cbacked Kings41c14,422$5,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,949.833844.7%17 W · 21 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Grizzlies55c14,045$7,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,320.3225753.7%138 W · 119 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39fd…5a3fbacked Grizzlies56c13,859$7,761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,097.7519958.3%116 W · 83 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Grizzlies54c13,621$7,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,267.2744459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Kings0c13,306$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.388820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d71…87d5backed Kings2c12,335$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.51833.3%6 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4bd6…918ebacked Kings0c11,303$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266811.8%8 W · 60 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick9cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7a7…d3abbacked Kings0c10,062$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2520034%68 W · 132 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+28.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Kings3c10,035$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.931,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x681d…4cbfbacked Kings0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1038545.7%176 W · 209 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Kings1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa925…e1c8backed Kings26c9,490$2,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,420.788744.8%39 W · 48 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6ce…0772backed Grizzlies56c9,144$5,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,023.2511741.9%49 W · 68 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Kings2c9,098$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.6581529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Kings42c9,000$3,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,779.9947748.8%233 W · 244 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Kings43c8,902$3,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,803.9185742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x067e…e021backed Grizzlies58c8,700$5,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,6541163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick41cpaid+56.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Kings12c8,678$1,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,029.31,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x51d9…cb1abacked Kings42c8,581$3,642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,642.4713743.8%60 W · 77 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e6c…d4dabacked Kings43c7,845$3,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,371.83145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+16.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Kings40c7,448$3,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,012.122,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Kings42c7,020$2,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,919.141,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1a4…e9adbacked Grizzlies66c7,000$4,617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,382.834535.6%16 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Kings42c6,561$2,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,779.2261835.4%219 W · 399 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Kings45c6,551$2,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,944.3639349.1%193 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Kings42c6,000$2,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,52518047.8%86 W · 94 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ecd…a578backed Kings42c5,700$2,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,393.9823135.1%81 W · 150 L-11.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc47f…94b4backed Kings2c5,685$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1207731.2%24 W · 53 L+0.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid+14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Kings0c5,512$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.278783%26 W · 852 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-62%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Kings1c5,439$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.57211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Kings43c5,138$2,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,209.211,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b7f…dd41backed Kings12c5,025$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.753729.7%11 W · 26 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Kings42c5,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,10043051.4%221 W · 209 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe734…8f6abacked Grizzlies59c5,000$2,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,05019150.8%97 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x011f…c024backed Kings42c5,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,100633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-35.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Kings25c5,000$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25034645.4%157 W · 189 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe12a…67efbacked Kings41c5,000$2,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,049.9415841.1%65 W · 93 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Kings25c4,938$1,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,225.648,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Grizzlies74c4,935$3,648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,287.5126038.1%99 W · 161 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Grizzlies59c4,695$2,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,924.8826253.8%141 W · 121 L+10.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Grizzlies64c4,639$2,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,688.075,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Kings43c4,620$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,979.79,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Grizzlies67c4,520$3,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,477.827848.9%136 W · 142 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc23b…24f9backed Kings44c4,500$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9804951%25 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3e4…9241backed Kings45c4,456$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0003432.4%11 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid+21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60cd…a1b6backed Kings38c4,321$1,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,650.778251.2%42 W · 40 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x447e…9710backed Grizzlies57c3,836$2,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,649.415251.9%27 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41c1…2894backed Kings1c3,722$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Kings44c3,639$1,597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,597.1544648%214 W · 232 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Grizzlies58c3,534$2,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,481.411,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Grizzlies57c3,500$1,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,504.9766250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82ba…9fbbbacked Kings6c3,321$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.261838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Kings41c3,221$1,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,330.62835.7%10 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x437c…f458backed Grizzlies59c3,100$1,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,28514356.6%81 W · 62 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Grizzlies57c3,000$1,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,289.4875347.5%358 W · 395 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Kings42c2,900$1,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,225.9878445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Grizzlies56c2,830$1,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,235.4962351.4%320 W · 303 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4779…7bcabacked Grizzlies58c2,700$1,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1342661.5%16 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x50bb…9aa6backed Kings5c2,699$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.6211951.3%61 W · 58 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69c2…40cfbacked Kings34c2,680$902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901.9948132.6%157 W · 324 L-2.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Kings43c2,540$1,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,092.0896447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1e0…8913backed Grizzlies59c2,381$1,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$976.365971.2%42 W · 17 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+17%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x60cc…f0dfbacked Kings42c2,353$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010852.8%57 W · 51 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe427…4c44backed Kings43c2,326$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0008951.7%46 W · 43 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x96df…4caabacked Kings44c2,273$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00011654.3%63 W · 53 L+9.8wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+18.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Grizzlies60c2,205$1,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$891.93,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ae5…53c8backed Kings3c2,200$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7417141.5%71 W · 100 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f4e…31cbbacked Kings2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4016750.9%85 W · 82 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-16.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6ee…b3aabacked Grizzlies54c2,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92036248.9%177 W · 185 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Kings34c2,000$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68076850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32bd…c195backed Grizzlies58c2,000$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8401861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Kings43c1,993$857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$856.9447751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7602…ed7fbacked Grizzlies56c1,900$1,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8361100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20b9…9110backed Kings44c1,816$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79913950.4%70 W · 69 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick56cpaid+9.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Grizzlies53c1,808$964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843.982,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1bb…42edbacked Grizzlies58c1,800$1,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$756683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick60cpaid+44.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Grizzlies58c1,707$997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.16,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b76…adb3backed Kings42c1,700$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7141127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Kings1c1,665$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.431,0351.1%11 W · 1,024 L-24.4wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-90.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x438b…fb23backed Kings9c1,646$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.810426%27 W · 77 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3fc…dd38backed Kings42c1,600$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-23%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Kings41c1,560$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.7415952.2%83 W · 76 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Grizzlies56c1,550$868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.4448944.2%216 W · 273 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.