NBA · resolved market
Kings vs. Grizzlies: O/U 235.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee0a6896035dd2ed757673127aa8e2f5a6e740b8f5bb1359cbcd92cfc41bf7c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,055
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,055 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 55c | 3,333$1,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,833.15 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Over | 50c | 2,806$1,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,403 | 175 | 54.9%96 W · 79 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 49c | 2,802$1,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,429.11 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 1,030$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.69 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 802.01$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.24 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 49c | 760.08$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.96 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed Under | 52c | 630.77$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.77 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 51c | 559$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.91 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6058…e5f6backed Over | 49c | 472$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc986…ae6bbacked Under | 53c | 258$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…8ee2backed Under | 52c | 250$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 207 | 54.1%112 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8c…af5ebacked Under | 53c | 214$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3da…db64backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…7d5abacked Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 134 | 64.2%86 W · 48 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 46c | 153.92$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.92 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…ada3backed Under | 54c | 148.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 38c | 129$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a0…f967backed Under | 52c | 115.4$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.39 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…2a71backed Under | 52c | 105.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70df…bca8backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…81d6backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 157 | 59.9%94 W · 63 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2c…e2fdbacked Under | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Under | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 304 | 54.9%167 W · 137 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 76.92$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a7…8150backed Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 104 | 64.4%67 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 51c | 43.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Under | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 372 | 53.5%199 W · 173 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…0e62backed Under | 51c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Under | 49c | 32.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 302 | 44%133 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…d5b0backed Under | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 48c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Grizzlies: O/U 235.5this page
- 1H Spread: Grizzlies (-0.5)Grizzlies won
- Kings vs. GrizzliesGrizzlies won
- Kings vs. Grizzlies: 1H MoneylineGrizzlies won
- Kings vs. Grizzlies: O/U 233.5Under won
- Kings vs. Grizzlies: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.