NBA · resolved market
Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25d0bca81558e218a322758e4d88fe98e06a0ec400768f3aba44553b8e54c499
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grizzliesof Grizzlies, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,367
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,334
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,367 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0801…fd93backed Kings | 55c | 3,500$1,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,925 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…31d0backed Grizzlies | 45c | 3,500$1,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,925 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Grizzlies | 48c | 3,134$1,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,629.88 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf32…e0e7backed Grizzlies | 45c | 2,400$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67f6…00f6backed Kings | 55c | 2,400$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Kings | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Kings | 23c | 1,259$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.96 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Kings | 52c | 1,126$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.52 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae7…cf61backed Grizzlies | 47c | 1,062$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.88 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Grizzlies | 44c | 825$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462 | 589 | 51.3%302 W · 287 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Kings | 50c | 636.38$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.21 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd97c…aedbbacked Kings | 56c | 594.64$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 184 | 52.7%97 W · 87 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Grizzlies | 48c | 499.99$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…9498backed Kings | 54c | 495$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.3 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Kings | 51c | 314$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.14 | 522 | 40%209 W · 313 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Grizzlies | 45c | 268.79$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.23 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Kings | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…8117backed Kings | 54c | 186.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Grizzlies | 45c | 185$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.75 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Grizzlies | 49c | 163.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.27 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21b4…e064backed Kings | 52c | 160.46$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.44 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb73…8f9bbacked Kings | 56c | 155$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f68…737bbacked Grizzlies | 46c | 153$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +92%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50db…28e8backed Grizzlies | 46c | 146$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Grizzlies | 46c | 141.67$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10c6…275dbacked Kings | 56c | 129$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Grizzlies | 44c | 123.75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Kings | 50c | 110.2$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x261b…b32bbacked Kings | 56c | 101.79$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Grizzlies | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Kings | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…2312backed Kings | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09e3…cf81backed Kings | 54c | 99.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 189 | 55%104 W · 85 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b2…3886backed Kings | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Grizzlies | 46c | 51.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Kings | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Kings | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5f…3269backed Kings | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a9…b9e9backed Kings | 55c | 48.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1206…eaeebacked Grizzlies | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c54…f00ebacked Kings | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5515…451dbacked Kings | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d3…a973backed Kings | 53c | 43.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 102 | 61.8%63 W · 39 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Grizzlies | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 394 | 49.2%194 W · 200 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1f…68f3backed Kings | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Grizzlies (-0.5)Grizzlies won
- Kings vs. GrizzliesGrizzlies won
- Kings vs. Grizzlies: 1H MoneylineGrizzlies won
- Kings vs. Grizzlies: O/U 233.5Under won
- Kings vs. Grizzlies: O/U 234.5Under won
- Kings vs. Grizzlies: O/U 235.5Under won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.