NBA · resolved market
Kings vs. Grizzlies: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3cb4985842e01d9f9d87c3e7f9d54161f92b4318d4fd3ed9449879a1d01a617
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $120,631
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $120,897
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,631 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc25…1f7fbacked Over | 1c | 50,446$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.46 | 964 | 47.8%461 W · 503 L | +35.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd43c…04e8backed Under | 48c | 50,266$24,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,210.99 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 52c | 32,705$17,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,015.19 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 52c | 4,585$2,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,384.2 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 52c | 4,487$2,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,333.09 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08dd…55b0backed Over | 57c | 2,213$1,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,261.47 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 2,159$1,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,148.26 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Under | 47c | 1,929$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.63 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Under | 44c | 1,100$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d4…23e8backed Over | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…420bbacked Over | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 294 | 58.5%172 W · 122 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 52c | 909.18$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.78 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 43c | 677.47$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.08 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa499…7873backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Under | 43c | 499.99$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Under | 44c | 415.05$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.43 | 256 | 42.6%109 W · 147 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 53c | 371$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.63 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39e…e7c7backed Over | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 77 | 64.9%50 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x261b…b32bbacked Over | 55c | 327.27$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x117c…db06backed Over | 53c | 301.89$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 180 | 47.2%85 W · 95 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 300.25$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.5 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…66abbacked Under | 44c | 272.73$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.73 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…9601backed Over | 51c | 259.99$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.99 | 163 | 46.6%76 W · 87 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb69…c773backed Over | 51c | 235.29$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 131 | 48.9%64 W · 67 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Over | 51c | 216.97$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.42 | 155 | 45.8%71 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…aa0ebacked Under | 49c | 209$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.59 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x646c…3210backed Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a83…09f0backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 55c | 175$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.25 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 47c | 174.49$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.07 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bc…201fbacked Over | 53c | 167$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…b721backed Under | 49c | 160$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0f…80ffbacked Over | 53c | 159$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6755…a477backed Over | 53c | 159$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ae…5980backed Over | 53c | 152$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe354…8a38backed Under | 49c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Under | 47c | 150$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9435…e843backed Over | 53c | 143$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471f…9b3dbacked Under | 49c | 143$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Under | 58c | 140$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.59 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Under | 44c | 138$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.28 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…fee1backed Over | 53c | 138$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…3885backed Under | 49c | 137$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…66ecbacked Over | 53c | 128$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0d…a373backed Under | 49c | 128$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…e907backed Over | 53c | 127$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.31 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x218a…e227backed Under | 49c | 126$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.26 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df8…99debacked Under | 49c | 124$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +102%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f93…bbdebacked Over | 53c | 112$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c5…a220backed Under | 47c | 108$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +49%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 58c | 103.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.89 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Under | 45c | 102$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03cb…aa21backed Over | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…9166backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…8163backed Under | 46c | 87.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.07 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5615…19cebacked Under | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2921…78b3backed Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd207…c366backed Over | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9f…d42cbacked Over | 54c | 62.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5e…271bbacked Over | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab2…5735backed Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc582…a75fbacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5729…c366backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 303 | 48.2%146 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 187 | 42.8%80 W · 107 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x188b…7c63backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4787…b9adbacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 47c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa9…7097backed Over | 55c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -6.6wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…0100backed Over | 55c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4f…73a6backed Over | 55c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb52…8046backed Over | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Grizzlies: O/U 233.5this page
- 1H Spread: Grizzlies (-0.5)Grizzlies won
- Kings vs. GrizzliesGrizzlies won
- Kings vs. Grizzlies: 1H MoneylineGrizzlies won
- Kings vs. Grizzlies: O/U 234.5Under won
- Kings vs. Grizzlies: O/U 235.5Under won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.