TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Bucks vs. Cavaliers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Cavaliersof Bucks, Cavaliers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,999,854
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,289,386

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,999,854 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,636 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8605…750fbacked Cavaliers71c136,389$96,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,031.722657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Cavaliers69c116,174$79,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,304.051,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Bucks30c102,500$30,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,772.0620253.5%108 W · 94 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7e3…1a64backed Cavaliers73c96,263$70,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,262.552100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+64.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Bucks30c71,891$21,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,710.282,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Cavaliers71c65,555$46,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,010.9587144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Bucks30c60,861$18,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,077.572,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Bucks29c60,000$17,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,4005433.3%18 W · 36 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-35.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Bucks29c43,000$12,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,4707946.8%37 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Cavaliers71c41,655$29,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,002.0472450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Cavaliers71c40,000$28,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,599.9738248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5922…3388backed Cavaliers70c39,998$27,838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,159.274456.8%25 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Bucks35c36,900$12,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,898.854,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Bucks32c36,062$11,621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,620.6326038.1%99 W · 161 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Bucks31c28,932$9,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,097.991,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Cavaliers70c23,189$16,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,870.4827251.1%139 W · 133 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers63c21,010$13,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,765.818,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked Bucks30c20,000$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,0001625%4 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-42.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Cavaliers69c20,000$13,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,199.9959653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Bucks28c17,972$5,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,002.6981529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Bucks31c17,333$5,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,373.278840.9%36 W · 52 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Cavaliers72c15,000$10,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,20034645.4%157 W · 189 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Bucks24c14,370$3,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,49548448.8%236 W · 248 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7902…170cbacked Cavaliers71c14,085$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,084.51757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Cavaliers72c13,889$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,888.8934062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Cavaliers66c13,541$8,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,662.2417658%102 W · 74 L+13.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa678…5ffabacked Bucks31c13,097$4,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,060837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Bucks36c12,341$4,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,392.125,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ce2…e868backed Bucks30c12,000$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,6005850%29 W · 29 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb35f…922ebacked Cavaliers69c10,340$7,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,205.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f9…d9fcbacked Bucks31c10,329$3,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,201.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4615…c180backed Bucks31c10,000$3,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,100757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x575a…bba6backed Bucks32c10,000$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,20012529.6%37 W · 88 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff36…e757backed Cavaliers73c9,996$7,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,699.0111547%54 W · 61 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Bucks28c9,681$2,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,710.6844648%214 W · 232 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Bucks20c9,288$1,852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,851.8885742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3e4…9241backed Bucks32c9,119$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9003432.4%11 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid+21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Bucks25c9,015$2,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,273.5276850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Bucks30c8,972$2,682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,681.992,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd735…968ebacked Cavaliers57c8,354$4,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,598.12759.3%16 W · 11 L+4.2wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+45.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Bucks19c8,096$1,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,553.921,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bucks30c7,949$2,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,383.989,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2352…c350backed Cavaliers72c7,200$5,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,015.99850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf112…d9e1backed Bucks48c6,681$3,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,220.657536%27 W · 48 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Bucks30c6,674$2,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0021,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Bucks18c6,337$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,125.31,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7f9…86ecbacked Bucks28c5,959$1,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,649.047338.4%28 W · 45 L-5.4wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-23.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5d6d…f4b1backed Cavaliers72c5,801$4,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,624.282100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x23d1…5795backed Bucks28c5,795$1,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,622.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Bucks32c5,767$1,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,858.962,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Bucks20c5,173$1,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,035.61,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc701…f932backed Cavaliers53c5,150$2,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,423.725250%26 W · 26 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x80ec…50aebacked Cavaliers71c5,100$3,621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,479862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Cavaliers69c5,029$3,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,563.1637557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Bucks31c5,000$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,55043051.4%221 W · 209 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Bucks29c5,000$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,45028850.3%145 W · 143 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Cavaliers72c5,000$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,399.9945348.1%218 W · 235 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7f1…dcbbbacked Bucks30c4,959$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50070%0 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1a9c…7365backed Cavaliers71c4,900$3,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,421850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc1…ffeebacked Bucks31c4,790$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50036943.4%160 W · 209 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa925…e1c8backed Cavaliers68c4,642$3,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,499.098744.8%39 W · 48 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Cavaliers71c4,320$3,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,248.1569852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x714c…f68dbacked Bucks14c4,200$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5783225%8 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-34.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Cavaliers70c4,152$2,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,245.6319351.3%99 W · 94 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Cavaliers68c4,132$2,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,322.3295049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Bucks24c4,130$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.091,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Bucks30c4,125$1,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,237.547751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd08b…daa9backed Cavaliers77c3,936$3,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$887.074858.3%28 W · 20 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x56fb…3b99backed Bucks28c3,571$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Cavaliers71c3,550$2,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,041.2878445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77c9…d567backed Bucks25c3,549$886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885.852133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+27.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84f6…2e01backed Cavaliers71c3,500$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00016749.1%82 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c03…d894backed Cavaliers70c3,291$2,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987.435848.3%28 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bucks29c3,168$934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.632,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c8a…f244backed Cavaliers69c3,125$2,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$968.75771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec30…5214backed Bucks32c3,125$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Bucks29c3,053$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$893.082,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Bucks30c3,050$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9151,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Bucks25c3,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75044337.9%168 W · 275 L-0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Bucks31c3,000$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93082442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Bucks34c2,826$954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954.462,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Bucks29c2,692$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780.482,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4517…f700backed Cavaliers60c2,646$1,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,058.2117147.4%81 W · 90 L+13.7wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+36.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Bucks1c2,610$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.28820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdefe…bdb8backed Bucks28c2,500$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6904725.5%12 W · 35 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-32.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x77e2…8ba5backed Bucks29c2,500$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+135.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Cavaliers70c2,443$1,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722.321,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Bucks29c2,443$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.381,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf300…3fabbacked Cavaliers72c2,400$1,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.974100%4 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Bucks29c2,331$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67665339.5%258 W · 395 L-24.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2839…0efebacked Bucks31c2,279$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706.351741.2%7 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Bucks32c2,216$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.2618047.8%86 W · 94 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Bucks29c2,197$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.3966853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Bucks29c2,138$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.8848944.2%216 W · 273 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Bucks31c2,037$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.691,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Cavaliers69c2,000$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.561851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Bucks29c2,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5801,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Cavaliers65c2,000$1,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$697.7373649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed Bucks30c2,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60022846.1%105 W · 123 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Bucks28c2,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56043247.5%205 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.