NBA · resolved market
Bucks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5e300a37b8e8893808c92c66294ba729d77f7a93a69decb3896a15ca85305f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,355
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,406
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,355 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Over | 48c | 1,181$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Under | 50c | 1,001$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.91 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 636.32$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.84 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 535$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.55 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 52c | 484$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.68 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed Under | 52c | 196$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.08 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf256…a93fbacked Over | 51c | 98.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.38 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cc…18cebacked Over | 52c | 78.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Under | 53c | 74$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de5…e9c6backed Over | 52c | 65.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad4…3c1abacked Under | 49c | 63.22$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x315a…b24cbacked Over | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd52…7e9abacked Over | 51c | 58.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…88b8backed Under | 50c | 58.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8634…afb4backed Under | 49c | 53.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Under | 53c | 49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +10.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…aeb8backed Over | 48c | 43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…0100backed Over | 48c | 43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1c…2be4backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -25%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e78…fcb4backed Over | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 47c | 39.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 52c | 38.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…668abacked Over | 48c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Under | 54c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…241bbacked Under | 53c | 20.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…af22backed Under | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bucks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5this page
- Bucks vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Bucks vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Bucks vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.