NBA · resolved market
Bucks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddc7f01ccf5a896d2f3cd0c1f681a8f028c51c0f216a1e9e2e11f2bb8173267f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,414
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,588
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,414 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 55c | 3,036$1,676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,360.86 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 45c | 2,903$1,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,306.05 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 44c | 1,377$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.88 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Under | 57c | 877.19$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.19 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed Over | 43c | 210.02$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.31 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb091…2017backed Under | 57c | 210.02$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.31 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Under | 56c | 207$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.08 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Over | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Under | 56c | 149$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.56 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f91…7c76backed Under | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Under | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78a4…05afbacked Over | 44c | 89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Under | 55c | 78$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f1…025dbacked Over | 50c | 77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cce…ebfebacked Over | 44c | 71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd67a…304cbacked Over | 44c | 62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50ad…2c48backed Over | 44c | 53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…908dbacked Under | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5253…b898backed Over | 44c | 48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x663b…e26cbacked Over | 45c | 43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…7ca5backed Over | 44c | 39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3873…dec8backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 442 | 43.7%193 W · 249 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under | 54c | 37.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…8248backed Under | 58c | 34.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Over | 47c | 31.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 302 | 44%133 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d21cbacked Under | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 88 | 59.1%52 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d1…4cb7backed Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54ef…186bbacked Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bucks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5this page
- Bucks vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Bucks vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Bucks vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.