NBA · resolved market
Bucks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x668178c7288f4094dfa9b13f7c51d382471b3eb223a73878a109ac18cf1977e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,452
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,547
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,452 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Over | 49c | 20,695$10,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,140.34 | 173 | 54.3%94 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Under | 51c | 15,000$7,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,350 | 155 | 45.8%71 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f23…dfb1backed Under | 52c | 6,494$3,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,117.23 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 5,583$2,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,658.71 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Under | 53c | 4,000$2,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,880 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked Over | 49c | 2,300$1,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123.98 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2900…af64backed Under | 52c | 2,047$1,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.54 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fb…b8e1backed Over | 50c | 1,991$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under | 50c | 1,394$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.03 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 50c | 1,179$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.25 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Under | 52c | 1,040$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.2 | 183 | 45.4%83 W · 100 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 51c | 750.04$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.52 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa499…7873backed Over | 51c | 608.23$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.62 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Under | 53c | 600$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb5…cdb0backed Under | 51c | 300.53$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.26 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x068f…4594backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 50c | 169$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.5 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Over | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ceb…b516backed Over | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 47c | 117.04$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.83 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f1…025dbacked Over | 53c | 99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.47 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…9166backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 48c | 80.83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da6…53edbacked Under | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x591a…aec2backed Over | 48c | 53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 45c | 52.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9fa…c365backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9585…475cbacked Under | 55c | 32.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4bf…2ccdbacked Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43af…da96backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bucks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5this page
- Bucks vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Bucks vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Bucks vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.