NBA · resolved market
Bucks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x630cc636e4a090625357f25496d335a82fddea93cddf31f672d7cc3629edb136
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,656
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 52c | 6,842$3,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,557.56 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 5,025$2,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,613 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2900…af64backed Under | 50c | 3,000$1,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,514.51 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 50c | 2,844$1,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,435.01 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07c…dc32backed Under | 49c | 2,714$1,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,384.29 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Over | 53c | 754.72$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 175 | 40.6%71 W · 104 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 48c | 729$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.08 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 565.31$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.11 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69dc…336dbacked Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 41c | 170.49$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.47 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe832…7abbbacked Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfde8…c52fbacked Over | 53c | 141.51$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 185 | 36.2%67 W · 118 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 124$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 53c | 115$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.95 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Under | 50c | 98.74$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.37 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 47c | 88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 51c | 44.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57bc…d82dbacked Over | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bucks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5this page
- Bucks vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Bucks vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Bucks vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.