Earnings · resolved market
Will Arm Holdings (ARM) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39760d0c47c6f5709da825cb4cb4c95e9e4db021b4845419cf7feace69f53c54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,897
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,907
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,897 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 12c | 1,800$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.57 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc813…44dabacked No | 5c | 999.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 15c | 489.86$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.38 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 77c | 463.54$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.02 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed No | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x376f…1ea4backed Yes | 76c | 250.79$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54fd…4ac3backed No | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 68 | 67.6%46 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…69f2backed Yes | 78c | 245.59$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.03 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…53b4backed No | 22c | 242.56$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea9…a10bbacked No | 10c | 215.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10bb…d49dbacked Yes | 78c | 200$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 102 | 72.5%74 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 22c | 155$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xada4…48babacked No | 12c | 149.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 10c | 138.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b6…398ebacked No | 15c | 136.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x902d…1f3fbacked No | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x731a…04bdbacked Yes | 76c | 124.9$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3da…d974backed No | 20c | 118.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a4…75c1backed Yes | 79c | 115.88$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x646c…3210backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -71%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf597…f4aebacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…9266backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed No | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 90 | 16.7%15 W · 75 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 23c | 97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked No | 24c | 83.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0f66…041fbacked No | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…6768backed Yes | 77c | 64.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23c1…7ce5backed No | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5343…0b0fbacked Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 117 | 71.8%84 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89d5…591bbacked Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +32%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed No | 22c | 47.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a28…aa5cbacked Yes | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…bff0backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 76c | 20.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee4a…b98abacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed Yes | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6576…5c59backed Yes | 79c | 13.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.