Earnings · resolved market
Will Rivian Automotive (RIVN) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29cf5736f96e42daf6db45baeacc0e05bd054447a50cdbca1b2c58eaacc2432b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,842
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,842 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +5.5wins | +0.16per pick | 7cpaid | +324.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c0…be99backed Yes | 70c | 920.94$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.17 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…3d9abacked No | 39c | 650.97$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.26 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9256…2e8bbacked Yes | 68c | 621.27$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.84 | 81 | 61.7%50 W · 31 L | +8.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 33c | 335.97$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.7 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked No | 38c | 303.41$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.41 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…4547backed Yes | 37c | 273.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed No | 31c | 253$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.16 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…0772backed Yes | 66c | 200$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 25c | 190.64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.52 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0a…9229backed Yes | 63c | 158.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.15 | 115 | 66.1%76 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2a…9ee3backed No | 63c | 146.45$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 139.41$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.48 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 61c | 126.42$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1db…f2e0backed Yes | 55c | 117.18$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.91 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f8…6620backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb5…d37cbacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -5.7wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -49%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470d…b463backed Yes | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.95 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…83e3backed No | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fd…95eabacked No | 62c | 99.98$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…2e68backed Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…1331backed No | 57c | 87.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63cc…eb32backed Yes | 40c | 83.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefbf…79f6backed No | 44c | 80$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +26%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x902d…1f3fbacked No | 53c | 75.94$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…e4e1backed No | 32c | 59.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a4…75c1backed Yes | 54c | 56.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e72…b2febacked No | 53c | 56.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed No | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb838…bb80backed Yes | 65c | 51.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d8…0af3backed No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 36c | 44.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…8fa9backed No | 46c | 43.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Yes | 67c | 42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa64…7afdbacked No | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -32%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0a…917dbacked No | 38c | 40.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…7b24backed Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -5.1wins | -0.32per pick | 63cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked No | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 54c | 29.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…8ae4backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed Yes | 44c | 28.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 56c | 28.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf57…053bbacked Yes | 64c | 27.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…5dc2backed No | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d9…8169backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8e…ce30backed No | 42c | 23.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…4986backed No | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…852fbacked Yes | 56c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad06…2dfabacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x214c…6378backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.22per pick | 63cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf597…f4aebacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…8177backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.