NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd9d229288514d3263c1f7a3012d382fc3305581d5ff60bff45093c886c6653e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,440
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,440 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 44c | 3,313$1,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,850.99 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 48c | 2,899$1,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,493.65 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…0e92backed Over | 52c | 1,645$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.42 | 416 | 52.2%217 W · 199 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Over | 55c | 1,455$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 331 | 46.2%153 W · 178 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 57c | 960$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.2 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8331…965abacked Over | 65c | 720.5$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.3 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 34c | 554.23$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.88 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 39c | 326.19$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.69 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8d…a108backed Over | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 245.17$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.89 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 54c | 237.35$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.17 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x117c…db06backed Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 180 | 47.2%85 W · 95 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3dd…45d3backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 181$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.83 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 34c | 147.54$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.71 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2921…78b3backed Over | 57c | 124.41$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.49 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…748cbacked Over | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9678…b4bfbacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 35c | 99.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x591a…aec2backed Over | 55c | 91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a6…9347backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…9166backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…8abbbacked Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Over | 65c | 78.46$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3b…51dabacked Over | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 56c | 62.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Under | 43c | 56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under | 36c | 55.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…81e0backed Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 42c | 53.18$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7acb…8c1dbacked Over | 62c | 52.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Under | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 342 | 46.8%160 W · 182 L | +18.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 522 | 40%209 W · 313 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x003b…4da0backed Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -6.6wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bc…a233backed Under | 44c | 41.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Under | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f7…f858backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2c…e2fdbacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94a2…0c1abacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a74…c3e4backed Over | 67c | 31.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe98b…d3bebacked Under | 46c | 28.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x068e…6f16backed Over | 55c | 27.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1e…327abacked Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14a4…4e86backed Over | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…7a20backed Over | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…9f8dbacked Over | 58c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb80d…4060backed Over | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb000…558dbacked Over | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…7da5backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf597…f4aebacked Over | 61c | 19.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dda…5cbbbacked Over | 60c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 66c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 394 | 49.2%194 W · 200 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…0b03backed Over | 58c | 17.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb52…8046backed Over | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…1121backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5this page
- Mavericks vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 229.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 230.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 231.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5Under won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-13.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-14.5)Timberwolves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.