NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-13.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6073e6ea1e322344084d4d626b86d66420de3e88f0e1bb86697d714c257d014
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Timberwolves, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,368
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,368 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Timberwolves | 54c | 900$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Mavericks | 46c | 590$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.4 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Mavericks | 46c | 577.52$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.17 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Mavericks | 46c | 310$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.6 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8d…a108backed Timberwolves | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…9601backed Timberwolves | 52c | 199.45$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.74 | 163 | 46.6%76 W · 87 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3dd…45d3backed Timberwolves | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Mavericks | 46c | 180.31$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.25 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7acb…8c1dbacked Timberwolves | 55c | 180$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc65…19a0backed Mavericks | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 260 | 44.6%116 W · 144 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mavericks | 45c | 126$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Mavericks | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…9166backed Timberwolves | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb358…ff63backed Timberwolves | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Mavericks | 45c | 90.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab2…5735backed Timberwolves | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…81e0backed Timberwolves | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Timberwolves | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Mavericks | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Mavericks | 45c | 48.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Mavericks | 48c | 33.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe985…7a09backed Timberwolves | 53c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…56dbbacked Mavericks | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 378 | 48.9%185 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-13.5)this page
- Mavericks vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 229.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 230.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 231.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5Under won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-14.5)Timberwolves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.