NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc281200fe4c25f67833ce1d47eb8271a37419b36399924d91877e46bef4ce386
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Timberwolves, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,661
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,661 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd97c…aedbbacked Timberwolves | 58c | 930.72$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.02 | 184 | 52.7%97 W · 87 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Mavericks | 42c | 645.1$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.27 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Mavericks | 42c | 328$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.76 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Timberwolves | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 701 | 53.5%375 W · 326 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Mavericks | 43c | 178$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.54 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Timberwolves | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Timberwolves | 59c | 169.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.17 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Mavericks | 43c | 167$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.81 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Mavericks | 44c | 120$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.03 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Mavericks | 41c | 107.43$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49a…f498backed Timberwolves | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09e3…cf81backed Timberwolves | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 189 | 55%104 W · 85 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Mavericks | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Mavericks | 44c | 96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Mavericks | 41c | 92.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Mavericks | 43c | 84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…d253backed Timberwolves | 57c | 83$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…c747backed Timberwolves | 58c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…6d41backed Timberwolves | 58c | 76$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a6…bbd5backed Timberwolves | 58c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…d923backed Timberwolves | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…24adbacked Timberwolves | 58c | 66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e44…3cefbacked Timberwolves | 57c | 64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Timberwolves | 58c | 63.88$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 304 | 54.9%167 W · 137 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…9f5abacked Timberwolves | 57c | 57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9714…3014backed Timberwolves | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Timberwolves | 58c | 48.28$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Timberwolves | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 249 | 55%137 W · 112 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Mavericks | 46c | 46.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe9…a400backed Timberwolves | 57c | 46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfacf…e97abacked Timberwolves | 57c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x787c…7ae2backed Timberwolves | 58c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ab…b38dbacked Timberwolves | 58c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.9wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…4d91backed Timberwolves | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…69c5backed Timberwolves | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 67cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x663b…e26cbacked Timberwolves | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5266…ddaebacked Timberwolves | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa27…dbdcbacked Timberwolves | 57c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a96…ec68backed Timberwolves | 58c | 23.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)this page
- Mavericks vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 229.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 230.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 231.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5Under won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-13.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-14.5)Timberwolves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.