Fifa International · resolved market
World Cup Goals H2H: Mbappe vs. Kane
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8fbebdf4c56a5a620861d60016acc6ff52a0f18d3e50309670bc7b6c8372c3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mbappeof Mbappe, Kane
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,478
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,444
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,478 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Kane | 18c | 4,972$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.51 | 326 | 29.1%95 W · 231 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…2a5fbacked Kane | 25c | 3,083$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.11 | 201 | 42.8%86 W · 115 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3701…1b5ebacked Mbappe | 66c | 971.35$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.7 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…b4b2backed Mbappe | 71c | 836.65$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.62 | 97 | 64.9%63 W · 34 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa18c…d792backed Mbappe | 74c | 594.69$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.92 | 240 | 58.8%141 W · 99 L | +19.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0a…cbc9backed Kane | 45c | 594.45$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.16 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb766…1d83backed Mbappe | 63c | 462.87$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.56 | 145 | 34.5%50 W · 95 L | -11.4wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Kane | 19c | 460.81$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.05 | 260 | 37.3%97 W · 163 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68d3…55b0backed Mbappe | 78c | 392.64$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.38 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Kane | 20c | 356.69$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 609 | 8.4%51 W · 558 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Mbappe | 72c | 314.19$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.12 | 1,067 | 49.1%524 W · 543 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd497…c62fbacked Kane | 22c | 299.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 123 | 30.9%38 W · 85 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Kane | 10c | 283.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Kane | 39c | 282.73$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.52 | 412 | 31.6%130 W · 282 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Kane | 40c | 279.4$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.76 | 218 | 36.2%79 W · 139 L | -19.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…eb71backed Kane | 34c | 267.54$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ce…6509backed Mbappe | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 111 | 62.2%69 W · 42 L | +16.7wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +27%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed Kane | 12c | 258$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Kane | 31c | 232.69$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.23 | 82 | 26.8%22 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b60…85e0backed Mbappe | 54c | 230.62$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.48 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Kane | 17c | 217.48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 662 | 39.6%262 W · 400 L | -48.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Kane | 8c | 209.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 167 | 4.2%7 W · 160 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2421…9d3cbacked Kane | 18c | 208.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73ed…310ebacked Kane | 46c | 207.34$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…78e0backed Kane | 17c | 202.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 215 | 17.2%37 W · 178 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Mbappe | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Kane | 22c | 180.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 457 | 36.3%166 W · 291 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Kane | 13c | 175.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 320 | 44.1%141 W · 179 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Kane | 13c | 167.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x219a…a647backed Mbappe | 63c | 158.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 133 | 72.9%97 W · 36 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Kane | 16c | 150.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 293 | 7.5%22 W · 271 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0164…9ed6backed Mbappe | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 197 | 23.4%46 W · 151 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Mbappe | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 128 | 47.7%61 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa880…d095backed Mbappe | 68c | 148.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Kane | 18c | 142.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 2,453 | 34.7%850 W · 1,603 L | +84.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54c6…e5c2backed Kane | 40c | 120.93$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.43 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Kane | 50c | 120.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 277 | 29.2%81 W · 196 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Kane | 16c | 111.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 486 | 36.6%178 W · 308 L | -48.4wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c1…7ce4backed Mbappe | 60c | 100.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7d…ca41backed Mbappe | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Mbappe | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2870…0264backed Mbappe | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Kane | 38c | 89.93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 148 | 39.2%58 W · 90 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7db…569dbacked Kane | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x961b…2b00backed Kane | 36c | 82.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x593c…dae0backed Mbappe | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45f2…722ebacked Mbappe | 63c | 79.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…3830backed Mbappe | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed Kane | 18c | 74.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Kane | 35c | 67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1818…fb2fbacked Mbappe | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf826…13b0backed Kane | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…bf77backed Kane | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf65d…b385backed Kane | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb28…3694backed Mbappe | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 179 | 50.3%90 W · 89 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked Mbappe | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Mbappe | 78c | 49.31$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 235 | 43%101 W · 134 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee6f…92d9backed Mbappe | 77c | 48.66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked Kane | 48c | 48.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e1…e621backed Mbappe | 79c | 47.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 70 | 72.9%51 W · 19 L | +7.3wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b9…b56cbacked Kane | 24c | 45.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e45…d758backed Mbappe | 71c | 42.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…af79backed Mbappe | 45c | 32.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x977e…f24abacked Mbappe | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc74b…cb3ebacked Mbappe | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Mbappe | 77c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 173 | 57.8%100 W · 73 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb499…4a97backed Mbappe | 77c | 16.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8494…814abacked Mbappe | 77c | 16.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 192 | 51.6%99 W · 93 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a43…67dcbacked Mbappe | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e7…3182backed Mbappe | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.