AI · resolved market
GPT-5.5 released by April 22, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcf382ddb2bb0333cc8c83cc525f33b2708c0122ff1e176e0d3ff76bc50dece1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e71…01bfbacked Yes | 4c | 7,100$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.4 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -91.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 5c | 5,305$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.83 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa629…e15cbacked Yes | 3c | 4,670$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.17 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed Yes | 6c | 2,324$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcae6…a0e7backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.4 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 72c | 1,658$1,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.39 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 7c | 1,477$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.87 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 30c | 1,304$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.98 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15db…b2b8backed Yes | 5c | 1,051$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c1…ffabbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7a…86cfbacked Yes | 3c | 999.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x149d…5178backed Yes | 15c | 686.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x604a…d5f8backed Yes | 7c | 600.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 3c | 596.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d5…6f93backed Yes | 4c | 588.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -67%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed No | 74c | 555.23$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd265…82afbacked Yes | 6c | 500$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d67…e08abacked Yes | 2c | 445.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 406.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 8c | 366.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dba…71e9backed Yes | 3c | 317.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 5c | 298.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81bf…6a27backed Yes | 5c | 284.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 264.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02d…efcfbacked Yes | 16c | 254.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed1c…36fabacked Yes | 5c | 239.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ef…90e2backed Yes | 6c | 239.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 5c | 224.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 7c | 217$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc304…c6bbbacked Yes | 20c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 36c | 166.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…8bb6backed No | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdaf…4c3fbacked Yes | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8e…4590backed Yes | 18c | 111.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked Yes | 11c | 104$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf081…10d3backed Yes | 17c | 98.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked Yes | 11c | 91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdabe…3363backed Yes | 19c | 56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 78c | 31.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -7.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- GPT-5.5 released by April 22, 2026?this page
- GPT-5.5 released by April 15, 2026?No won
- GPT-5.5 released by April 19, 2026?No won
- GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026?Yes won
- GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- GPT-5.5 released by June 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.