AI · resolved market
GPT-5.5 released by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14ee9bcf3b2170da60a8da2e1216d64dfa7b93e9df94e79404edf657f78839e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $323,060
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $287,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $323,060 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1831…ae73backed Yes | 59c | 80,005$46,963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,041.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca2…5818backed No | 41c | 80,000$33,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,040 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed No | 4c | 21,997$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.25 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 15,982$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.33 | 149 | 1.3%2 W · 147 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa629…e15cbacked No | 5c | 7,284$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.03 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed No | 4c | 4,925$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.45 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked No | 2c | 4,392$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.83 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 6c | 4,294$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.3 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fd…29e4backed No | 3c | 4,151$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff04…d971backed No | 2c | 4,021$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.76 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 3,859$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 3,670$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.03 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 0c | 3,419$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 3c | 3,267$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.36 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f8…0e46backed No | 6c | 2,407$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 4c | 1,812$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.9 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff7…87a4backed No | 6c | 1,605$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.93 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc312…d90cbacked No | 2c | 1,536$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…6f43backed No | 7c | 1,361$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed No | 8c | 1,041$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.43 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed No | 2c | 1,005$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 42 | 0%0 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…d06fbacked No | 6c | 1,000$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.97 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaba5…a69ebacked No | 1c | 970.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7593…e677backed No | 3c | 913.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 6c | 875.39$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 4c | 795.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd2…29aebacked No | 3c | 748.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 3c | 703.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb0…35fdbacked No | 7c | 681.87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 3c | 621.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 4c | 413.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…ba0dbacked No | 6c | 251.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 8c | 232.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ab…c2a6backed No | 15c | 223.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 21cpaid | +274.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3118…ee98backed No | 5c | 205.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…c57fbacked No | 6c | 165$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2e…ced0backed Yes | 79c | 125.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ad…6403backed No | 44c | 113.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…1a36backed Yes | 80c | 104.85$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec09…1db9backed No | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 69c | 71.91$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e27…acccbacked Yes | 75c | 68.07$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca52…0cdfbacked Yes | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 30c | 40.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda76…edf5backed Yes | 75c | 37.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 43c | 31.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3106…8a34backed Yes | 57c | 26.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aae…cb22backed Yes | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x295c…0f9abacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd119…011cbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- GPT-5.5 released by June 30, 2026?this page
- GPT-5.5 released by April 15, 2026?No won
- GPT-5.5 released by April 19, 2026?No won
- GPT-5.5 released by April 22, 2026?No won
- GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026?Yes won
- GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.