AI · resolved market
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2a06cb9fafe300892227b08691199918d11e1d251d94fc6db936baa90ab97ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,217
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,217 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 13c | 404.63$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.86 | 372 | 44.9%167 W · 205 L | +28.8wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…2a1dbacked No | 38c | 384.52$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb5…9d52backed Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 76c | 135$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 736 | 35.6%262 W · 474 L | -58.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 462 | 38.7%179 W · 283 L | -33.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…9be4backed No | 52c | 68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed No | 45c | 59.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93da…2a34backed No | 47c | 43.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…e632backed Yes | 62c | 42.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…8d25backed Yes | 72c | 41.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 79c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbc…c072backed Yes | 61c | 39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59cc…2963backed No | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 49c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb47…5d20backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 70c | 17.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25a0…8d97backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on August 28?this page
- Will TikTok Pro - Events be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on August 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.