Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64d84f9b515a798ec26e75ef12bfade6c76403652f9b20246f48269674c4462d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,840
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,488
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,840 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 67c | 939.63$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.05 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed No | 78c | 439.99$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.2 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 342.07$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.62 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 36c | 298.27$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.56 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 75c | 265.99$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.49 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 49c | 253.85$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.37 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 17c | 212$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.96 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 37c | 211.07$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.41 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 209.66$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 22c | 198.03$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.42 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 23c | 197.41$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.29 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 79c | 166.64$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.65 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 27c | 161.58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.4 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 7c | 161.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 24c | 152.85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.12 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 152.12$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.08 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 78c | 147.25$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 17c | 144.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed Yes | 30c | 144.39$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.2 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 14c | 133.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.98 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 76c | 125.81$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.49 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b7…feffbacked No | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 16c | 109$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.29 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 46c | 92.54$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6e…a1ebbacked Yes | 58c | 79.77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…d649backed Yes | 34c | 77.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.02 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 22c | 71.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.46 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 44c | 70.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 57c | 68.49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3e…d953backed Yes | 79c | 68.21$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf52e…1663backed Yes | 24c | 65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…889abacked Yes | 23c | 64.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.32 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aba…34a2backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 59.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 27c | 57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 56.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 48c | 54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…7488backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +141.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 78c | 46.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 35c | 40.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 49c | 39.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…0b82backed Yes | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…4e57backed No | 78c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce0…fbe2backed Yes | 71c | 31.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 76c | 30.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 66c | 28.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37eb…1df0backed No | 63c | 28.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 53c | 27.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 76c | 27.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 75c | 26.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 44c | 26.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb7…841cbacked No | 59c | 25.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…3b47backed Yes | 59c | 25.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 76c | 23.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 67c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06c8…bdddbacked Yes | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.