Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7b912afec49912c4366ac9045f1f9e45024954060e8987f97b41d17aeeaef2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,502
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,928
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,502 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe7fb…5fb7backed Yes | 1c | 1,520$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 53c | 333.73$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.86 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 61c | 327.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.73 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d34…a917backed Yes | 18c | 309.16$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.11 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 35c | 285.68$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.35 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 70c | 266$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.03 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 31c | 259.19$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.24 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 33c | 236.1$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.05 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 37c | 233.08$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 207.53$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 26c | 200$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 65c | 178.18$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.36 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 153.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 35c | 142.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 56c | 142.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.72 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 30c | 139.29$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3884…4a9cbacked No | 50c | 123.1$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.55 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf6…bdf2backed Yes | 26c | 104.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.77 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 52c | 99.72$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.07 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 69c | 93.73$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 13c | 91.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 56c | 89.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 25c | 82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 80.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6e…a1ebbacked Yes | 65c | 76.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 57c | 75.7$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 58c | 73.03$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf52e…1663backed Yes | 38c | 65.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…b8f8backed Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 40c | 59.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 49c | 55.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5aba…34a2backed Yes | 48c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 26c | 53.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 49c | 50.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8162…1a48backed Yes | 60c | 50.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06c8…bdddbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 67c | 49.16$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3172…e940backed No | 57c | 47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 62c | 43.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 32c | 42.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…23bdbacked No | 49c | 42.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 71c | 40.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 40c | 38.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 49c | 37.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a05…fe04backed No | 54c | 36.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x328c…8fabbacked Yes | 39c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 36c | 32.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c7…e7fdbacked Yes | 39c | 32.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 46c | 30.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x615f…5f37backed Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 29.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce0…fbe2backed Yes | 44c | 28.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83fd…b67fbacked Yes | 44c | 27.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 56c | 26.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 69c | 24.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9689…cbddbacked No | 50c | 23.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 61c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 18.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.