Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf19f336f886e64bfbf5a5be0cf3bfa3938ff4d3a8919b0154f2f8409661874c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,395
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,583
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,395 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 75c | 266$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.74 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 10c | 261.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 29c | 206.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 34c | 199.93$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.98 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 145.14$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.74 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 76c | 136.68$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 29c | 134.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…b8f8backed Yes | 35c | 133.49$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 29c | 99.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Yes | 35c | 95.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 94.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 90.34$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 14c | 84.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 70c | 81.98$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec83…7014backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf52e…1663backed Yes | 30c | 76.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 29c | 65.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 70c | 57.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 36c | 55.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b8ddbacked Yes | 33c | 54.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 52.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 68c | 50.72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d34…a917backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbad3…7715backed Yes | 23c | 49.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…3304backed Yes | 26c | 48.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 98 | 30.6%30 W · 68 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 47.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 66c | 45.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2aa…3e28backed No | 72c | 42.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 74c | 41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 72c | 40.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 74c | 37.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed No | 73c | 30.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 72c | 30.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 66c | 30.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 68c | 29.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 71c | 28.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9e6cbacked No | 71c | 28.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…620cbacked No | 75c | 26.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -6.8wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c08…724fbacked No | 71c | 24.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 60 | 73.3%44 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 67c | 23.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 76c | 19.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0d…37a2backed No | 76c | 15.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 75cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dba…5b01backed No | 72c | 14.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 72c | 14.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.