Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbec38cce9c48047ae2f6488aa3c91a08e816152da98a09a0bd93e5b06fd0d5af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,413
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,181
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,413 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bf6…bdf2backed Yes | 35c | 393.61$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.33 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 361.5$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 75c | 266$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 23c | 227.89$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 6c | 215.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 36c | 181.74$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.97 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 27c | 179.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 37c | 160$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 151.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 9c | 142.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…b8f8backed Yes | 33c | 137.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 77c | 111.22$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 21c | 107.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 26c | 107$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…ddd3backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x539e…8d25backed Yes | 32c | 99.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 11c | 99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 12c | 90.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 65c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 84.72$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfde8…042dbacked Yes | 37c | 64.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c7…e7fdbacked Yes | 35c | 47.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 45.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 62c | 41.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d4…ae97backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6962…0629backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 69c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3274…4493backed Yes | 35c | 34.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fa…4d49backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 65c | 24.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 71c | 20.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 67c | 15.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 79c | 14.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C or higher on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.