Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4ea238559de5c9a8544765e05370ea71894e34a3156ce312d8e53b2d3d01f04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,554
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,788
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,554 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 15c | 429.67$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.6 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 397.03$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.76 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 33c | 303$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.01 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 65c | 302.03$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.32 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 75c | 266$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed No | 8c | 241.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 238.25$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 32c | 200.78$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.05 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 45c | 195.27$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.46 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 168.83$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfde8…042dbacked Yes | 45c | 165.64$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.64 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 36c | 159.45$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.29 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa598…2ff3backed No | 34c | 149.96$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e07…13b0backed Yes | 34c | 146$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 70c | 136.43$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.44 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 44c | 127.29$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.29 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x095d…110bbacked No | 15c | 114.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 111.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.59 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 34c | 110.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 25c | 101$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.75 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…d52dbacked No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 59c | 95.54$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x539e…8d25backed Yes | 62c | 94.95$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.95 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 44c | 84.75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.81 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 83.88$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 23c | 82.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 23c | 79.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 77c | 70.92$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed No | 66c | 66.21$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 37c | 65.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.56 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 69c | 64.73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 59.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 66c | 58.02$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 35c | 57.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.13 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dba…d397backed No | 66c | 52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x888d…ca08backed Yes | 39c | 51.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed No | 65c | 49.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 27c | 45.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aba…34a2backed Yes | 35c | 41.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 41.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 65c | 40.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87b4…2656backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6962…0629backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 33c | 39.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 50c | 38.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 50c | 37.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fd…b67fbacked Yes | 33c | 36.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed Yes | 78c | 35.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 70c | 33.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 63c | 31.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d77…9ee4backed Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 43cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 55c | 29.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…4b19backed Yes | 69c | 28.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d34…a917backed Yes | 44c | 24.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb954…c00dbacked No | 66c | 24.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e37…9a37backed No | 77c | 23.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 76c | 22.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 66c | 22.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2746…5f00backed No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…401ebacked Yes | 67c | 20.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x46d7…7c87backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.17per pick | 69cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x83df…362fbacked Yes | 70c | 17.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 75c | 16.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…3b47backed Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C or higher on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.