Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64faeae756ff18a1c629a662ef9647dbffcc0d6f0e1040cb1fae594eeaaad9b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,167
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,468
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,167 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 18c | 899.96$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 358.37$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.17 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 6c | 350.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 60c | 324.96$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.42 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 28c | 315.3$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 29c | 300$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 63c | 290.5$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.47 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 51c | 222.3$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.27 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 71c | 220$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.58 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 12c | 202.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 79c | 200.58$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 30c | 199.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.21 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 12c | 198.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 42c | 174.93$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.93 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…db19backed No | 70c | 169.61$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.4 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 11c | 166.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 27c | 147.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c2…0c32backed Yes | 42c | 146.4$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.08 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 34c | 141.91$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.52 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 12c | 128.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 45c | 120.68$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.23 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 73c | 118.55$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 77c | 115.01$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 66c | 107.85$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.54 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 37c | 80.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.78 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked Yes | 27c | 79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 77.74$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.87 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked No | 24c | 76.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 37c | 74.34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 67c | 74.1$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 27c | 67.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.65 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 41c | 67.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 70c | 66.87$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 38c | 60.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.53 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 72c | 60.4$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 49c | 59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 71c | 55.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd108…5bc2backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed No | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 58c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55da…74efbacked Yes | 43c | 44.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…e193backed No | 67c | 42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 56c | 41.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 58c | 40.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x724f…a426backed Yes | 35c | 39.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 55c | 38.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4482…d2d1backed Yes | 33c | 38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +120.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7153…3b55backed Yes | 33c | 37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 33c | 35.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdab5…0543backed Yes | 43c | 35.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912d…02fcbacked No | 65c | 35.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed Yes | 69c | 33.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd799…f6e1backed No | 67c | 33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8b…8e96backed Yes | 79c | 31.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…7f0fbacked Yes | 45c | 30.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 67c | 30.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 41c | 30.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf82…7513backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 41c | 29.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…b01fbacked No | 69c | 29.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 39c | 29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…36cdbacked Yes | 44c | 28.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d0…1284backed No | 64c | 27.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 43c | 27.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 57c | 27.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 68c | 26.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 42c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 59c | 25.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed Yes | 45c | 25.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 44c | 24.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…bec8backed No | 46c | 21.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf910…5912backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd293…73f6backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 56c | 19.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2baa…c5bdbacked No | 60c | 18.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aff…9945backed Yes | 75c | 13.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.