Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcaa2ac50104c67e7bd6a4cddc703a16bc55185dd4abfc89bdba5f05f4cce7440
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,946
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 2,052$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffe…e48bbacked No | 74c | 888.9$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.16 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 71c | 554.49$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.35 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed No | 72c | 347.28$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.28 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 15c | 322.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 78c | 300.83$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.65 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 38c | 259.34$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 16c | 223$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 39c | 213.77$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.05 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 58c | 194$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.45 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 180.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 37c | 133.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 131.75$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 46c | 114.15$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.94 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 43c | 112.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1a…9d0abacked Yes | 37c | 107.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 52c | 107.55$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.39 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 38c | 104.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…d649backed Yes | 41c | 101.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1e…9d49backed Yes | 50c | 101.2$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 48c | 100.1$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 98.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x00be…e93cbacked Yes | 33c | 98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 31c | 90.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 58c | 89.37$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.86 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 86.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…85c6backed Yes | 33c | 85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 24c | 83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…401ebacked Yes | 38c | 78.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 62c | 78.35$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c93…8d25backed No | 67c | 78$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x714c…9c5fbacked Yes | 40c | 76.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 54c | 69.23$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eed…87e3backed No | 67c | 63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 43c | 61.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 55c | 60.88$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…a761backed Yes | 44c | 58.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 76c | 58.39$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 49c | 58.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 54.68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 57c | 54.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 36c | 54.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 38c | 53.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…c3debacked Yes | 25c | 52.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -18.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 49.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 63c | 49.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf82…7513backed Yes | 30c | 47.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 52c | 45.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 26c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60cb…c2debacked No | 67c | 42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x724f…a426backed Yes | 51c | 39.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 30c | 37.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 57c | 36.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 33c | 34.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba5…191ebacked Yes | 43c | 34.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 36c | 31.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 64c | 31.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…7f0fbacked Yes | 39c | 30.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x589e…d9e7backed Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4033…48c5backed Yes | 43c | 29.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3c…a384backed Yes | 37c | 27.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 50c | 27.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked No | 55c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 42c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1048…e362backed No | 55c | 25.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +62%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x05d4…ae97backed Yes | 40c | 25.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…7421backed No | 76c | 24.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 71c | 23.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…d4e2backed Yes | 46c | 21.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 20.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 64c | 20.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 60c | 20.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 69c | 19.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 17.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd68c…69d0backed No | 79c | 15.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.