Us Politics · resolved market
Will the number of US flights delayed on March 29 be less than 6,000?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf6855ea225cce7f34bf412bd4488d91c053de540c5a85708005b79e0362c834
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,045
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1056…5b18backed No | 55c | 1,160$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27d9…3b92backed No | 75c | 1,137$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$854.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd70e…0ac1backed Yes | 30c | 927$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +232.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed Yes | 45c | 584$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe70…e8e9backed Yes | 45c | 576$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 4c | 532.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b45…836ebacked No | 70c | 335$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…f15fbacked No | 70c | 330$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed No | 70c | 262$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b0…26a7backed No | 25c | 215.79$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 18c | 167.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.07 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed Yes | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca5…9343backed Yes | 76c | 131.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 49c | 115$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb70…01c0backed Yes | 72c | 74$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…ee5dbacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14cb…1d0cbacked Yes | 62c | 45.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed No | 41c | 32.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the number of US flights delayed on March 29 be less than 6,000?this page
- Will the number of US flights delayed on March 29 be between 6,000 and 6,500?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.