Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5be9021cb9f42a9faa9840e223d7f4f6ceb7ae8ffc363384cc02efd008a9b9e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,064
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,145
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,064 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 25c | 643.63$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.64 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb0…3ad3backed Yes | 70c | 482.77$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.22 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 422.01$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.98 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 42c | 339.18$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.85 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 26c | 255.11$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.9 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed Yes | 33c | 150.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.29 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 45c | 148.58$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…7d44backed No | 18c | 134.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -16.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 45c | 129.27$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.97 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 27c | 117.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 53c | 117.11$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.05 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7e…3de7backed Yes | 57c | 105.28$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.28 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdee5…67bfbacked No | 77c | 103.79$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.55 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9757…2dbfbacked Yes | 32c | 97.13$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.13 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 80.72$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.95 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e53…254cbacked Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x400f…f027backed No | 35c | 78.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 26c | 77.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.36 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 24c | 75.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.48 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac7…744dbacked No | 38c | 68.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 30c | 66.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 30c | 65.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 65c | 63.42$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac6c…ff17backed Yes | 50c | 61.87$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 72c | 61.21$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed Yes | 20c | 59.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.76 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 31c | 56.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.47 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4c…fa01backed No | 48c | 52.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8b…8e96backed Yes | 54c | 51.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 63c | 47.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 44.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 40c | 38.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 77c | 32.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41c3…4d56backed Yes | 52c | 32.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5728…d2b2backed Yes | 49c | 30.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9948…5da1backed No | 67c | 29.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1828…6946backed Yes | 57c | 26.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.