Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4834e3c6719bf580d6d797ad3be84627183e51b14dc6bdca3339948cdc210e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,717
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,625
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,717 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 14c | 846.04$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.53 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 10c | 724.84$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.01 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 10c | 582.61$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 11c | 566.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.36 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed No | 78c | 354.99$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.53 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 9c | 350$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 326.68$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.98 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 4c | 313.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 5c | 209.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 46c | 165.3$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.82 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb58d…b858backed Yes | 50c | 164.84$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.54 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 131$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 124.17$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d21cbacked Yes | 45c | 110.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…6087backed No | 77c | 107.55$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 71cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e53…254cbacked Yes | 20c | 102.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…a743backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb267…5f55backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…0ed9backed No | 76c | 99.58$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 56c | 83.63$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 25c | 72.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 67c | 69.02$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 71c | 67.83$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e93…be55backed Yes | 24c | 60.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 37c | 55.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 27c | 54.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes | 36c | 52.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…401ebacked No | 76c | 37.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7e…3de7backed Yes | 55c | 36.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 36.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1c…bd99backed No | 50c | 29.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 77c | 28.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 73c | 27.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10a4…2895backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ff…f3a0backed No | 67c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.67 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeaf…9ce1backed No | 80c | 12.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.51 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on May 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.