Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5878fb1cbac7c3918371c7808b1e60d1f97b531d1a9ce645b01223d95dcf39e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,951
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,034
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,951 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 19c | 449.97$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.8 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 11c | 359.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 28c | 235.41$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.42 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 29c | 216.54$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.88 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 10c | 216.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed Yes | 10c | 204.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 77c | 138.7$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 15c | 125.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 24c | 124.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 19c | 110$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 19c | 106.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 73c | 106.37$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 28c | 105.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 32c | 100.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb954…c00dbacked Yes | 27c | 91.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 17c | 90.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 82.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9954…b725backed No | 75c | 79.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes | 34c | 67.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 68c | 65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 27c | 57.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 70c | 52.86$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 31c | 49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 42.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 75c | 35.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 75c | 32.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 28.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1c…bd99backed No | 80c | 24.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 20.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 75c | 19.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.61 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on May 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.