Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa42f4f861675f1426e197d03b395b01445fd29b1e1c1e759e28f4764b9e2b0be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,026
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,026 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 369.36$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.11 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 14c | 199.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6e…a1ebbacked Yes | 29c | 170$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked Yes | 26c | 150.18$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 71c | 130$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 126.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 28c | 126.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 119$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 107.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 32c | 92.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eed…87e3backed Yes | 24c | 83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 33c | 76.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 73.89$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 34c | 73.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked No | 72c | 67.29$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 66.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c93…8d25backed Yes | 24c | 66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 20c | 58.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes | 21c | 56.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf82…7513backed Yes | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdab5…0543backed Yes | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ea…124dbacked No | 76c | 53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbad3…7715backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60cb…c2debacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x615b…2ba8backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 30c | 49.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00be…e93cbacked No | 76c | 46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 33c | 42.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabe6…6dd9backed Yes | 28c | 40.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 71c | 34.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 73c | 28.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 28.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 70c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3a…b9e6backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 68c | 18.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked No | 70c | 17.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 80c | 16.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 69c | 16.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 73c | 15.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on May 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.