Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C or higher on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93428c4f2a067265d0c6f8b2f0ca552cda5525180d84e0878ab1c5d4c660c517
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,363
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,411
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,363 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 49c | 4,010$1,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,983.82 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 20c | 1,226$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.09 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 73c | 809$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.79 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93dd…4ed5backed Yes | 2c | 625$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 114 | 4.4%5 W · 109 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 66c | 539.67$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.83 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 53c | 468$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.32 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 62c | 433.24$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.69 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 19c | 377.9$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.27 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 8c | 377.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 48c | 345.58$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.13 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 9c | 290.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 71c | 274.4$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.43 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba9d…46efbacked Yes | 45c | 267.17$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 9c | 262$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 244.01$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.11 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e33…6e0cbacked Yes | 6c | 239.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 59c | 227.2$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.23 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dca…ebaabacked No | 51c | 196.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.76 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 23c | 196.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.17 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 41c | 183.9$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 7c | 183.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 46c | 157.38$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.82 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 61c | 132.09$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.81 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f83…88ddbacked Yes | 14c | 126.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 43c | 121$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.03 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 63c | 119.52$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.57 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 109$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.93 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 10c | 101.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 24c | 98.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 14c | 90.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 24c | 86.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 78c | 84.56$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 78.56$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 71.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 69.39$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26bc…6b72backed No | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec43…1d57backed No | 80c | 57.69$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 56.84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48c8…4ccabacked No | 55c | 54.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 36c | 50.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 39c | 46.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 47c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 59c | 43.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5037…0307backed No | 67c | 41.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37be…5a65backed No | 56c | 40.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 54c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb394…040ebacked No | 55c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 37c | 34.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 36c | 32.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 51c | 30.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee5…b493backed No | 54c | 28.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 39c | 27.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa89c…a608backed No | 78c | 26.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 53c | 26.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 65c | 26.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 47c | 24.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 70c | 22.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x599f…3317backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 125 | 78.4%98 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…4651backed No | 77c | 19.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 55c | 18.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69a7…7fd5backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 64 | 73.4%47 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 76c | 14.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C or higher on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.