Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d44bf0b971ee8efeef9e03f4725b87ed7946a59a832878203dff541cbe675be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,587
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,920
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,587 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 21c | 915.05$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.56 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 590$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.1 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 79c | 561.86$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.43 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 346.35$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.28 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba9d…46efbacked Yes | 24c | 335.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 18c | 229.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 199.28$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 27c | 160$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 17c | 141.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29ae…c79fbacked No | 78c | 133.53$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -10.0wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4c63…8448backed Yes | 23c | 129.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 80c | 127.07$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 11c | 110.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 109$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbab…9c6dbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3520…eed2backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 78c | 93$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 36c | 82.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 73c | 80.9$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 79.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 74.5$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed Yes | 22c | 68.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 62.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 25c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x47ac…7284backed Yes | 24c | 52.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -70%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 26c | 50.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 31c | 50.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 24c | 48.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa89c…a608backed No | 75c | 44.24$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 27c | 44.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 71c | 43.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 25c | 43.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 73c | 40.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 26c | 39.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 74c | 33.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 66c | 31.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 72c | 29.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 78c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 26.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 77c | 24.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 73c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 76c | 23.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 73c | 21.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 78c | 21.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0114…f0b9backed No | 76c | 20.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 72c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69a7…7fd5backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 64 | 73.4%47 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10bd…8ff6backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 69cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf444…8d4abacked No | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C or higher on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.