Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x158802b3e4b906008a265667fbb28b3a37095fde8bd5c62b2458902f6d1d75f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,488
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,488 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 8c | 2,271$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.71 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 22c | 516.66$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.79 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 51c | 514.66$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.99 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 45c | 491.68$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.67 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 67c | 437.77$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.44 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 45c | 424.53$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.58 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4266…ffacbacked No | 55c | 405.91$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.66 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…744abacked Yes | 36c | 398.14$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.75 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 41c | 364.53$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.31 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 37c | 354.56$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.26 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 41c | 344.16$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.61 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 34c | 319.54$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.71 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34c4…9c93backed Yes | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…82c5backed Yes | 47c | 274.4$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.83 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 258.5$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.51 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 47c | 250.35$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.43 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ff…b951backed No | 33c | 242.84$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.55 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed No | 63c | 226.88$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.95 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 48c | 223.18$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.27 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…4e32backed Yes | 30c | 203.31$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 51c | 201.74$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.78 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 42c | 199.14$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.8 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 44c | 198.11$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.63 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 53c | 181.29$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.51 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 172.08$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.48 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 30c | 168.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 53c | 158.57$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.83 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcb…bf61backed No | 68c | 146.75$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.46 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca06…b2c4backed Yes | 71c | 145.65$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.41 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 40c | 145.41$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.46 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d9…c3cbbacked Yes | 63c | 143.44$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 72c | 139.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 40c | 138.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.67 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 37c | 133.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.56 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 76c | 128.66$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 75c | 127.49$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 47c | 120.1$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.91 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe072…af95backed Yes | 9c | 117.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 71c | 114.58$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.35 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 114$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 74c | 113.97$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.55 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 32c | 113.91$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.1 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x589b…0381backed Yes | 49c | 113.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.15 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 34c | 110.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 71c | 107.88$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 18c | 106.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 38c | 103.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…b52abacked Yes | 40c | 103.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 47c | 102.11$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.24 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 49c | 102$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8699…f6bebacked Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.9 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | +12.4wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa83c…a8f4backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 57c | 97.79$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.86 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…ee43backed Yes | 28c | 95.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 48c | 93.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…4390backed Yes | 78c | 92.7$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.54 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 72c | 91.26$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.71 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 59c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 55c | 88.35$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 58c | 86.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.23 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 46c | 86.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 42c | 83.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.32 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 42c | 78.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 44c | 77.86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.47 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 49c | 77.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 61c | 76.45$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…65d5backed No | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 55c | 71.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 44c | 70.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 69.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…9ac2backed No | 72c | 69.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 30c | 67.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 54c | 66.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 30c | 62.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 38c | 60.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…c718backed No | 66c | 60.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1338…fd2cbacked No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 79c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 31c | 57.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 57c | 56.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed Yes | 39c | 55.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 56c | 53.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 37c | 53.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 175 | 36.6%64 W · 111 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…c336backed No | 19c | 53.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.34 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 33c | 53.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 35c | 53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 25c | 51.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb60…9784backed Yes | 58c | 50.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 63c | 49.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 39c | 49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 73c | 48.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 56c | 48.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 49c | 47.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 60c | 46.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 48c | 46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.