Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a4ef750e0cd50be285aa13d2abab957f84ab7bba52201f1ac50059f3a7b287e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,117
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 37c | 768.44$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.39 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…daccbacked Yes | 33c | 600.47$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.8 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 35c | 600.45$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.31 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed No | 78c | 393.2$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.42 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 27c | 276$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.52 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 225$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.13 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d9…c3cbbacked Yes | 45c | 222.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.34 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 216.22$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.02 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 50c | 215.22$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.62 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 37c | 197.26$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.26 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 25c | 182.69$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.26 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 26c | 170.35$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.53 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 161.82$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 45c | 157.7$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.45 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 157.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.85 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 28c | 156.95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 17c | 149.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 20c | 146.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.65 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 71c | 144.79$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.42 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 144.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.02 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 76c | 131.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 19c | 130.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.12 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 128.31$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.16 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 58c | 120.28$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.49 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 41c | 118.75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 115.13$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.69 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 39c | 110.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.48 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 80c | 102.96$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f13…edcfbacked Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.28per pick | 59cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 52c | 99.59$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 28c | 93.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.56 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 52c | 90.06$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.48 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 80c | 87.19$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.38 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 20c | 82.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…2d49backed No | 19c | 79.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 26c | 74.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 66c | 72.09$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.65 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 55c | 68.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 70c | 68.33$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…744abacked No | 67c | 66.85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 45c | 65.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c0a…d4e5backed Yes | 24c | 63.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 78c | 62.63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 34c | 59.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.26 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…3145backed Yes | 22c | 54.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 34c | 54.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.42 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 53.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 34c | 50.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc7…51adbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55be…fb40backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 67c | 48.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 39c | 47.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.43 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 75c | 42.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 57c | 40.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 42c | 38.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 42c | 37.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…f6a5backed No | 52c | 37.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 66c | 36.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 39c | 32.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 75c | 32.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 66c | 31.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 41c | 30.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 42c | 28.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 24.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 79c | 21.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…bbeabacked No | 76c | 18.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed No | 78c | 18.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 17.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 63c | 16.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 79c | 16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 77c | 14.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.