Us Midterms · resolved market
Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 6.00% and 6.50%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd20b0d0467c4e4577e82ddb9f1364f8044cff2568b801806f98570d5c18f0b24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,580 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa07d…9871backed No | 19c | 10,010$1,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,888.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 80c | 3,188$2,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.01 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x863e…1424backed No | 8c | 2,009$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…50d4backed No | 7c | 1,984$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c4…7bf6backed No | 7c | 1,975$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd27f…b3ddbacked No | 7c | 1,755$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 1,687$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc022…d8a1backed No | 9c | 1,452$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 5c | 1,319$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.31 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca73…0ae2backed No | 8c | 1,289$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0f…4b9dbacked No | 7c | 1,276$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5a…5e87backed No | 8c | 1,167$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked No | 7c | 1,122$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.78 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca37…dbb9backed No | 8c | 1,112$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ad…7dd1backed No | 8c | 1,085$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7d…ba41backed No | 7c | 1,020$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x009f…32febacked No | 8c | 930$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x070b…468fbacked No | 8c | 891$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0e…9b1abacked No | 7c | 883$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c0…38acbacked No | 4c | 871.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…e3febacked No | 4c | 832.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x563a…f578backed No | 4c | 804.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…0bc5backed No | 8c | 804$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb2…0912backed No | 8c | 777$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fbf…6e97backed No | 7c | 731$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac6…2c6fbacked No | 8c | 724$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 6c | 712.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b06…a3fdbacked No | 7c | 704$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3277…ec6dbacked No | 2c | 700$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed No | 3c | 689.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a95…d39fbacked No | 8c | 655$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5391…1b80backed No | 7c | 655$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc022…065abacked No | 8c | 654$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 4c | 646.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e44…322cbacked No | 7c | 623$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…3ecebacked No | 2c | 597.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 7c | 584.15$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ae…be02backed No | 7c | 570$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -76%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 79c | 546.58$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.39 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 17c | 500$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.3 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e58…a3d2backed No | 7c | 493$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6447…8075backed No | 2c | 474.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f5…704cbacked No | 8c | 459$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 3c | 453.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca2…f1edbacked No | 8c | 448$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f44…8d51backed No | 8c | 446$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…2906backed No | 8c | 432$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…d5f1backed No | 8c | 425$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd65b…b7dcbacked No | 7c | 378$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50b…a106backed No | 7c | 373$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x377d…ddddbacked No | 6c | 339.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x569b…e1b5backed No | 7c | 305$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 8c | 300$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f74…6e19backed No | 9c | 280$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed Yes | 65c | 276.88$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.03 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c9…5a57backed No | 17c | 269$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5416…828fbacked No | 7c | 262$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0913…a5d6backed No | 8c | 231$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8b…00a3backed No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed No | 6c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 6c | 189.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8db0…28ddbacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 17c | 94.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 133 | 17.3%23 W · 110 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 12c | 88.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -81%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba3…27e2backed No | 20c | 86.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 27c | 68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked No | 25c | 65.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 46c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba6…3f5bbacked Yes | 79c | 23.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 6.00% and 6.50%?this page
- Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 5.50% and 6.00%?No won
- Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 6.50% and 7.00%?No won
- Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 7.00% and 7.50%?No won
- Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 7.50% and 8.00%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.