Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b6ba8d3a9ef8907d2da611c8cde04086f54fd1f899fadca200ff07c14cd09fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,875 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20e0…8501backed No | 1c | 2,425$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 77c | 2,197$1,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.59 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked No | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 4c | 969.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$933.99 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 12c | 929.23$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.46 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 6c | 860.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.1 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 3c | 727.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.07 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 7c | 652.84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.98 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 2c | 493.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.04 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 13c | 491.19$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.95 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 3c | 437.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.46 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 18c | 411.24$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.69 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 14c | 399.14$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.2 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 3c | 367.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.88 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 5c | 359.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.41 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 5c | 266.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.59 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c83…cf0abacked Yes | 19c | 214.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.43 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 14c | 203.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.71 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…e3febacked Yes | 13c | 194$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 22cpaid | +249.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 6c | 172.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.6 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c3…b054backed Yes | 18c | 171.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes | 11c | 149.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.83 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 9c | 147.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.47 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7832…ca08backed Yes | 14c | 139.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.87 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +269.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 9c | 122.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.59 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 22c | 108.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.01 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c0…38acbacked Yes | 14c | 106.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe356…63bcbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +226.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x563a…f578backed Yes | 14c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +247.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86cb…6c6dbacked Yes | 15c | 89.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.88 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 15c | 83.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.07 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 40.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 56c | 19.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C or below on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.