Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81e9c22194b9c79d6e6840beb63bff6b33b9c3cd60e0a470234478c5226d3c38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,615
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,615 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 1c | 804.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 32c | 774.71$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.49 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 20c | 679.21$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.48 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 26c | 666.34$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.3 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 599.76$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.92 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 11c | 527.39$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.05 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…c8cebacked Yes | 3c | 522.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 27c | 472.05$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.88 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 31c | 432.4$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.98 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 31c | 427.2$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.1 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 29c | 399.99$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x522c…9290backed Yes | 4c | 399.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 370.02$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.96 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 25c | 319.51$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.73 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee54…c2dfbacked Yes | 33c | 303.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 77c | 303.26$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.04 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 10c | 283.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb71b…cb2fbacked Yes | 5c | 283.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 270.65$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes | 32c | 266.39$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.08 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 30c | 255.69$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.94 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 72c | 253.88$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.69 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c83…cf0abacked Yes | 29c | 250.55$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.52 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 17c | 239.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91e8…b571backed Yes | 32c | 213.62$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 32c | 199.98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ff…5e00backed Yes | 15c | 198.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…64f0backed Yes | 27c | 182.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 77 | 14.3%11 W · 66 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0a…ccdcbacked Yes | 38c | 180.64$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.64 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 79c | 180.1$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 80c | 178.61$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes | 14c | 166.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 27c | 157.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ea…b603backed Yes | 16c | 154.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 13c | 148.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 71c | 141.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.81 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 29c | 136.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 135.8$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.73 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 18c | 135.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 14c | 132.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 16c | 128.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 15c | 128.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 72c | 123.09$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.86 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a8…c016backed Yes | 35c | 116.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46bb…4c35backed No | 66c | 106.26$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3382…a6e4backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 20c | 98.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa654…58c9backed No | 73c | 94.52$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 21c | 94.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 70c | 90.64$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 34c | 88.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed Yes | 31c | 85.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 30c | 82.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf212…a810backed Yes | 36c | 79.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 15c | 77.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfe…de4dbacked No | 76c | 76.26$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 77c | 75.38$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2af3…c472backed No | 71c | 73.13$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 68c | 71.81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 33c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…0060backed Yes | 30c | 69.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd4…c9acbacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 21c | 65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…8f0bbacked Yes | 37c | 57.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 103 | 27.2%28 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 62c | 55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x419e…4cd4backed Yes | 35c | 52.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…a3a4backed Yes | 35c | 52.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4b…48bdbacked No | 67c | 51.71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5c…4568backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86cc…f46ebacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 64c | 47.69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3d…9516backed No | 75c | 46.68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ae…ce30backed Yes | 30c | 46.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8988…98f2backed No | 66c | 45.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed No | 69c | 45.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…6b3fbacked No | 71c | 44.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 67c | 43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b48…fcf0backed Yes | 27c | 40.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +56%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 30c | 40.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…74b8backed No | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9e…154abacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 69c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa408…c0d0backed No | 68c | 39.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe283…7ac8backed Yes | 34c | 39.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed No | 80c | 39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc605…ebdfbacked Yes | 37c | 38.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d0…c5bbbacked No | 70c | 37.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 67c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbce0…f095backed No | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 28 | 89.3%25 W · 3 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 74cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1c…e948backed Yes | 35c | 36.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C or below on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.