Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f5e6e90bf55f5e05281e2956d46001c39742cf461e6c9a6739b693253b89178
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,716
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,716 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 167 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 27c | 1,658$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,210.85 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6e…cfe9backed Yes | 62c | 1,523$947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$947.45 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…5584backed Yes | 3c | 1,050$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 46c | 598.76$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.19 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 14c | 588.52$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.86 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 500.59$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.89 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 14c | 442.72$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.62 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5c…1151backed No | 48c | 392.81$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.26 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked No | 23c | 377.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.35 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 66c | 369.89$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 66c | 366.26$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.07 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 29c | 324.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.05 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 25c | 291.64$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.36 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…e7e8backed Yes | 63c | 284.01$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 280.58$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.25 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 64c | 226.24$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.05 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 222.82$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.83 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 39c | 221.54$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.59 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 49c | 199.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…5fe3backed No | 50c | 194$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db5…6340backed No | 49c | 190$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd17…272fbacked No | 49c | 190$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 61c | 184.57$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.86 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e4…498cbacked No | 49c | 181.99$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…2e20backed No | 34c | 178.47$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.47 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22d9…9becbacked No | 50c | 172$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.66 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb45b…d941backed No | 50c | 162$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 42c | 160.97$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.25 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 63c | 158.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5c…4568backed No | 70c | 155.56$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 79c | 151.73$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf112…d9e1backed Yes | 59c | 150$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c83…cf0abacked Yes | 28c | 149.03$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee81…38bdbacked No | 49c | 144.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 70c | 143.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 125.08$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.62 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 28c | 120.09$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.9 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdda2…ffa9backed No | 46c | 120$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 56cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 48c | 120$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 29c | 119.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 17c | 117$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.11 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 33c | 112.13$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.68 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 64c | 109.13$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.12 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 19c | 108.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 38c | 103.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 51c | 101.36$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.88 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 54c | 100.46$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.65 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 70c | 95.68$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.83 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 24c | 90.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff2…9070backed Yes | 59c | 90.37$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.01 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 35c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4611…5e90backed Yes | 50c | 89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…b05ebacked Yes | 59c | 88.49$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 25c | 85.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.16 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfefc…3a9dbacked Yes | 50c | 84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 78c | 82.2$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.32 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 43c | 82.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…1fb9backed Yes | 51c | 81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…53f9backed Yes | 60c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 70c | 78.49$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…0060backed Yes | 37c | 78.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 77.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd95c…c18ebacked Yes | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x322f…fa6dbacked Yes | 51c | 76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…7b24backed Yes | 50c | 71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 53c | 70.89$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.08 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa642…184fbacked Yes | 51c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…ee14backed Yes | 17c | 69.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 43c | 69.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 68.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27cd…c7adbacked Yes | 73c | 68.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 57c | 67.51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.01 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 66.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x96aa…a84cbacked Yes | 38c | 65.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 63c | 65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5b…67a9backed Yes | 52c | 64.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x853d…6c4abacked Yes | 51c | 62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed No | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc664…8ca9backed Yes | 51c | 57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 60c | 57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a8…c016backed Yes | 27c | 56.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 33c | 54.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1a…ba31backed Yes | 50c | 53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 76c | 52.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd4…c9acbacked Yes | 38c | 52.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec4d…07b9backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…aa1dbacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cb…3e74backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C or below on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.