Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5da37daba8879ff1dba99fcb6616ccf55f69a677e303267a3af3fe4ce7f36ca6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,854
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,854 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 17c | 739.53$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.08 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 5c | 406.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 4c | 402.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 24c | 343.52$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.44 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 4c | 343.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 21c | 305.53$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.26 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 238.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ea…b603backed Yes | 19c | 216.04$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 9c | 211.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 24c | 204.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 20c | 202.84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 9c | 142.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked No | 78c | 128.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 19c | 120.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 76c | 119.82$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…b104backed Yes | 26c | 116$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes | 19c | 113.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 28c | 113.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 79c | 112.7$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 103.75$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 26c | 100.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 80c | 93.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26f3…158dbacked Yes | 20c | 91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 88.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5b…67a9backed Yes | 29c | 87.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 86.09$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 15c | 80.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa41b…882cbacked Yes | 21c | 68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 65.12$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 79c | 63.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 17c | 63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d52…b9b3backed Yes | 21c | 63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 79c | 60.83$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 78c | 60.51$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3d…9516backed Yes | 26c | 50.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 78c | 49.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1679…e172backed No | 74c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa91…4325backed No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 76c | 30.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 78c | 26.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked No | 80c | 24.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 76c | 23.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90cc…5d9cbacked No | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c48…2a9dbacked No | 74c | 20.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed No | 74c | 18.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe687…154bbacked No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C or below on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.