Movies · resolved market
Will "War Machine" be the top US Netflix movie this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d638af0ebe122430d98d9e398e8df7cea088c184ecff682d85bb200c4976d03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,784
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,784 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x643f…e306backed No | 4c | 2,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -37%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f16…7013backed No | 1c | 980.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 8c | 831.15$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.27 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 5c | 599.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 12c | 450.48$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.17 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…e3febacked No | 7c | 440.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x563a…f578backed No | 7c | 440.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c0…38acbacked No | 7c | 440.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 7c | 428.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…9b0cbacked No | 10c | 288.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 7c | 274.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…15e1backed No | 13c | 249.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | +14.1wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 205.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cd…dcabbacked No | 25c | 202$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…c6debacked Yes | 75c | 198$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.32 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 9c | 193.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 8c | 180$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 10c | 176$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf662…6804backed No | 12c | 167.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.48per pick | 18cpaid | +217.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78c3…7003backed No | 16c | 150.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x817f…bf28backed No | 8c | 140.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…af18backed No | 17c | 77.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde5e…3a94backed Yes | 69c | 62.8$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…089abacked Yes | 78c | 25.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "War Machine" be the top US Netflix movie this week?this page
- Will "Jurassic World Rebirth" be the top US Netflix movie this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.