Movies · resolved market
Will "Jurassic World Rebirth" be the top US Netflix movie this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42d180efcc1f93bd567ccc14127fcc491f9c05a49cc9d2b80614da89b6cd9a00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,949
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,949 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x643f…e306backed Yes | 3c | 8,451$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.53 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -37%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…15e1backed Yes | 11c | 2,015$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.18 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | +14.1wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed Yes | 10c | 1,173$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.97 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eff…86b0backed Yes | 4c | 999.91$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4999…cc96backed Yes | 9c | 679.45$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 27c | 502$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.96 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 5c | 336.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 90 | 21.1%19 W · 71 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 5c | 314.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 4c | 298.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes | 14c | 281.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 12c | 260.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 15c | 219$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc553…b054backed No | 79c | 215.38$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.92 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x808f…57babacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 160.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 79c | 125.11$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6f…f19dbacked Yes | 23c | 90.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…852fbacked No | 71c | 42.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Jurassic World Rebirth" be the top US Netflix movie this week?this page
- Will "War Machine" be the top US Netflix movie this week?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.