Earnings · resolved market
Will PDD Holdings (PDD) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x680a9592b4f88d8590a831158ea912328c7fb68c727d8087c81911b07816b262
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,610 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e90…8f2cbacked No | 34c | 406$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…e37fbacked No | 34c | 380$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…3ca7backed No | 34c | 374$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…18bdbacked No | 34c | 371$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc700…e9efbacked No | 34c | 363$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7a…d6aabacked No | 33c | 362$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f6…a4a1backed No | 29c | 354.47$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.17 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | +58%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x483f…6b4dbacked No | 33c | 332$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 11c | 328.86$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.13 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd3…628bbacked No | 33c | 328$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edd…13cdbacked No | 33c | 318$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c1…d332backed No | 33c | 306$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa356…a89cbacked Yes | 66c | 241$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…9dffbacked Yes | 66c | 241$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9cb…e400backed Yes | 66c | 239$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5376…5957backed Yes | 66c | 212$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc4…3950backed Yes | 66c | 209$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2b…f664backed Yes | 67c | 206$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 16c | 202.32$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.2 | 768 | 37.4%287 W · 481 L | +35.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdee6…fe64backed Yes | 66c | 200$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 70c | 199.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.99 | 676 | 42.9%290 W · 386 L | -36.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e17…0845backed Yes | 66c | 197$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 74c | 196.79$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.6 | 157 | 65%102 W · 55 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdff8…980ebacked No | 18c | 196.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ce…ba20backed Yes | 66c | 187$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 14c | 184.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.36 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…bd0ebacked Yes | 67c | 176$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…5e7ebacked Yes | 67c | 173$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb872…5495backed Yes | 66c | 168$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…744ebacked Yes | 67c | 167$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bb…53c4backed Yes | 67c | 163$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd9…ca6bbacked Yes | 67c | 158$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad51…2e6ebacked Yes | 67c | 158$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77d0…998fbacked Yes | 67c | 155$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…6989backed Yes | 67c | 155$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed No | 24c | 149.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.99 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…271cbacked Yes | 67c | 135$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 72c | 124.26$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.95 | 582 | 39%227 W · 355 L | -25.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 71c | 109.86$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.36 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f1…790bbacked Yes | 75c | 106.05$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.85 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x520c…c42dbacked No | 23c | 105.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.61 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccfa…6be3backed No | 29c | 105.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +148.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9381…9ae2backed Yes | 72c | 105$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x272f…164fbacked Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 22c | 96.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.73 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 71c | 94$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.74 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 29c | 94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.74 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +44%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea55…efccbacked No | 14c | 69.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…2224backed Yes | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…6dc9backed No | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b01…a4cbbacked No | 26c | 62.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 63c | 54.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked No | 32c | 45.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c28…1041backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f24…38a5backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2526…9f68backed Yes | 75c | 39.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a4…9281backed Yes | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f3…e50abacked Yes | 80c | 38.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfac2…f35fbacked Yes | 77c | 25.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 73cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a28…aa5cbacked Yes | 68c | 24.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 69c | 20.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 68c | 20.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 269 | 51.3%138 W · 131 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0318…d067backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570e…ba89backed Yes | 75c | 19.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ff…8876backed Yes | 78c | 18.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.3wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.